气候变化对南方典型小水电站入库径流及发电的影响

Effects of climate change on inflow and small hydropower generation in southern China

在全球气候变化不断加剧的背景下,降水、气温、蒸发等气象要素的变化对流域水文和水力发电产生重要影响;中国作为水能资源丰富的国家,水力发电在能源结构中具有重要地位,研究气候变化对入库径流和水力发电的影响,对实现水资源和水电能源的可持续开发利用具有重要意义。以位于北江支流的官溪水电站为研究对象,基于19个CMIP6全球气候模式数据,利用RCCC-WBM模型分析了未来气候变化对官溪水电站入库径流和发电量的影响。结果表明:(1)在SSP2-4.5情景下,官溪水电站以上流域的气温、降水均呈现上升趋势;(2)尽管不同GCMs模式预估结果存在一定差异,从19个模式集合平均结果看,官溪水电站未来入库径流和水力发电量将有所增加;(3)与基准期(1981—2020年)相比,2031—2060年和2061—2090年官溪水电站入库流量将增加3.55%[−34.14%,39.84%]和5.66%[−32.27%,41.96%],发电量将可能增加5.87%[−29.3%,50.1%]和8.03%[−27.3%,52.4%]。未来径流和发电潜能的增加为官溪水电站的扩容改造提供了一定的科学依据。

In the context of global warming,shifts in precipitation,temperature,and potential evaporation exert a substantial impact on hydrological patterns and hydropower production.China endowed with abundant hydropower potential,places significant emphasis on hydropower in its energy portfolio.Investigating the effects of climate change on reservoir inflow and hydropower output is crucial for the sustainable development and utilization of water and hydropower resources.This study focuses on the Guanxi hydropower station,utilizing projections from 19 General Circulation Models(GCMs)in the CMIP6.The findings suggest:(1)Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,temperature,precipitation,and potential evaporation are projected to increase in the coming decades.(2)Divergent GCMs yield varying projections;however,the overall trend indicates potential increases in inflow runoff and hydropower generation based on the mean of 19 GCMs.(3)Relative to the baseline(1981-2020),Guanxia hydropower station's inflow runoff is anticipated to rise by 3.55%[−34.14%,39.84%]and 5.66%[−32.27%,41.96%]in the near(2031-2060)and far(2061-2090)future periods,respectively.Consequently,hydropower generation is expected to increase by 5.87%[−29.3%,50.1%]and 8.03%[−27.3%,52.4%]due to changes in inflow runoff.These projected increments offer scientific support for the expansion of small hydropower station construction.