自然灾害救助物资储备需求模型构建与实证研究——以深圳市为例

Construction and empirical study of natural disaster relief materials reserve demand model:Take Shenzhen as an example

为科学开展自然灾害救助物资储备,在分析城市灾害救助特点的基础上,选取了需要全域大规模人口转移安置的灾害:台风、暴雨和地震作为典型灾种,分析典型救助灾种所需物资的特殊性,综合确定了自然灾害救助物资的储备基本品种。采用多元回归的方法,分析和分解了影响自然灾害救助物资储备量的因子,构建了自然灾害救助物资储备需求的动态测算模型,综合考虑了历史巨灾转移安置人员数量、单人物资使用量、物资损耗补偿系数、临时救助时长、需政府救助的人员比例和使用某品种物资的人员比例6个关联因子。以深圳市为例,以近年来深圳遭受过的台风(暴雨)和地震灾害后转移安置人数最多的一次作为测算基数,测算得出深圳自然灾害救助物资储备标准值。

To scientifically manage the reserving of natural disaster relief materials,this study was undertaken based on an analysis of the characteristics of urban disaster relief.Typical disasters that necessitate large-scale population displacement and resettlement,such as typhoon,heavy rain and earthquakes,were selected for investigation.The uniqueness of the materials required for relief in these typical disasters was analyzed,and the fundamental types of natural disaster relief materials were comprehensively determined.A multiple regression method was employed to analyze and decompose the factors affecting the reserve of natural disaster relief materials.A dynamic estimation model for the demand of natural disaster relief materials reserve was constructed,taking into account six related factors:the number of displaced and resettled individuals in historical major disasters,per capita supply usage,supply depletion compensation factor,temporary relief duration,the proportion of people requiring government assistance,and the proportion of people using a particular type of supply.Shenzhen City was used as a study case.Using the highest number of displaced and resettled individuals following typhoon,heavy rain and earthquakes in recent years as the basis for estimation,the standard value for the reserve of natural disaster relief materials in Shenzhen was calculated.