中国建设用地扩张未来情景模拟及其对景观格局演化的影响

Future construction land expansion under multiple simulation development scenarios and its impacts on landscape pattern evolution in China

对中国建设用地的未来扩张趋势及时空格局进行模拟预测,可为科学编制国土空间规划和合理调控城乡发展提供科学依据。本研究对未来30年中国建设用地扩张进行多情景模拟预测,并分析不同区域建设用地扩张的时空演化特征及其对景观格局演化的影响。研究结果表明:(1)基于斑块生成土地利用模拟模型(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation,PLUS)可以获得较高的模拟精度,各分区Kappa系数均高于0.92,总体精度均高于95%,FoM值均高于0.40,表明PLUS模型适用于全国尺度和大区域尺度的土地利用模拟。(2)影响中国建设用地扩张最主要的因素为人口、坡度和年均降水量,存在区域性差异。(3)自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护和可持续发展四种情景下模拟预测的未来土地利用的结构和特征具有明显差异,在可持续发展情景下建设用地扩张主要占用非重点保护的耕地和生态用地以及未利用地,可满足经济发展对于建设用地指标的刚性需求,有助于实现可持续高质量发展。(4)建设用地扩张对景观格局产生显著影响,在可持续发展情景下,与2020年相比,2030年、2040年和2050年建设用地预计增长分别为-0.72%、-0.51%和1.19%,中部和东部地区的优势景观面积占比持续下降,景观多样性不断上升;西部地区的景观聚集度显著下降,破碎度持续上升。本研究通过建设用地扩张的情景模拟及其对景观格局的影响分析,尝试为制定区域差别化政策提供参考,对实现经济发展、耕地保护和生态保护三者之间的均衡协调可持续发展具有重要意义。

The simulation of future construction land expansion and the analysis of its impacts on landscape pattern evolution in China help to provide scientific basis for the formulation of territorial space planning and the regulation of urban&rural development.This study aims to simulate the expansion of construction land in China in the next three decades under multiple development scenarios and to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of construction land expansion in different regions and its impacts on landscape pattern evolution.The results show that:(1)The simulation results of the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation(PLUS)model have higher accuracy compared with GeoSOS-FLUS model,indicating that the PLUS model has certain applicability to national and large-scale regional land use simulations;(2)The main influencing factors of China's construction land expansion are determined as population,slope,and annual precipitation,but difference exists among different regions;(3)The structure and characteristics of future land use predicted under the four scenarios of natural development,cultivated land protection,ecological protection,and sustainable development are obviously different.The increase of construction land under the sustainable development scenario is mainly derived from normal cultivated land,ecological land,and unused land.Such a scenario could meet the rigid demand of economic development and helps to realize a sustainable development;(4)The rapid expansion of construction land has significant impacts on landscape patterns.The expansion areas of construction land are predicted to increase by-0.72%for 2030,-0.51%for 2040,and 1.19%for 2050 compared with 2020.The proportion of dominant landscape area in central and eastern regions of China decreases continuously and the landscape diversity increases continuously,while the degree of landscape aggregation decreases significantly and the degree of fragmentation increases continuously in the western region.Through the simulations of construction land expansion under multiple development scenarios and the analysis of their impacts on landscape pattern evolution in China,this study attempts to provide a reference for the formulation of regional differentiated policies on a national scale,which is of great significance for the efficient use of land resources and for achieving the balanced,coordinated,and sustainable development among economic development,cultivated land protection,and ecological protection.