我国三大海洋经济圈海洋经济高质量发展与海洋生态安全协同发展的时空格局

Spatial and temporal patterns of synergistic development of high-quality marine economic development and marine ecological security in three major marine economic circles of China

“十四五”规划强调,应全面提升北部、东部、南部三大海洋经济圈发展水平,实现海洋全域均衡发展。协同推进三大海洋经济圈海洋经济高质量发展(MHQ)和海洋生态安全(MES)发展水平、缩小区域间协调发展差距是推进海洋据点式示范模式向区域全面均衡发展模式转化的关键环节。本文运用耦合协调度模型和空间自相关分析方法考察中国三大海洋经济圈MHQ和MES系统协同推进程度及空间关联格局的时空演变特征。研究发现:(1)三大海洋经济圈两系统耦合协调水平呈波动上升态势,整体处于濒临失调衰退向初级协调发展的过渡阶段。(2)“三圈”协同发展水平存在显著的非均衡发展态势,空间分布整体呈现“东部>北部>南部”的格局。(3)三大海洋经济圈两系统耦合协调度存在显著空间正相关性,相关程度随时间推移先增强后减弱;耦合协调度空间关联格局呈现一定的空间集聚特征。研究结论可为指导三大海洋经济圈相似关联地区促进海洋高质量发展—海洋生态安全协同推进、落实海洋强国战略提供决策参考。

The “14th Five-Year Plan” emphasizes that the development level of the three major ocean economic spheres should be comprehensively improved to achieve balanced development of the whole ocean area.Promoting the high-quality development of marine economy and marine ecological security in the three major marine economic circles,and narrowing the gap between the coordinated development of the regions are the key link to promoting the model of marine strongholds to the model of comprehensive and balanced development of the regions.This paper examines the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the spatial correlation patterns and the degree of synergistic promotion of MHQ and MES in China′s three major marine economic circles using the coupled coordination degree model and spatial auto correlation analysis.It is found that:(1) The level of coupling and coordination between the two systems has been fluctuating and increasing,and the whole area is in the transition stage from the decline of disorder to the primary coordinated development.(2) There is a significant unbalanced development trend in the level of synergistic development of the “three circles”,and the overall spatial distribution shows a pattern of “East > North > South”.(3) The spatial correlation of the coupling and coordination degree is significant,and the correlation degree increases and then decreases over time;the spatial correlation pattern of the coupling and coordination degree shows certain spatial clustering characteristics.