同心圆枣气候资源及其2021年减产的气候因素分析

Analysis of Climatic Resources of Jujube Fruits and Climatic Factors for Yield Reduction in 2021

运用同心国家基本气象站1981—2020年逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、日照时数、平均相对湿度、降水量、2 min平均风速、最大风速气象数据,采用线性趋势系数等统计方法,分析了1981—2020年40年同心圆枣各发育期气候资源变化和导致2021年同心圆枣减产的气候因素,以期为枣产业发展提供参考依据。结果表明:1)同心县气象要素年度值中平均气温、日照、≥10℃积温达到红枣种植适宜气象指标的气候保证率均超过95%,但年降水量气候保证率仅为2.5%。关键发育期中萌芽期和展叶期平均气温达到适宜指标气候保证率均超过80%,但花期平均气温和平均相对湿度及果实生长期平均气温的气候保证率均低于80%。2)全生育期平均气温呈上升趋势,2 min平均风速呈增大趋势,日照时数、降水量、相对湿度无明显变化趋势,以上5个要素在不同生育期内的变化趋势不一。3)同心圆枣主要生长季在4个年代际变化中分别呈现出冷湿、冷湿、暖干和暖湿的气候特征。4)影响2021年同心圆枣减产的主要气象因素为萌芽期低温多雨、花期至果实生长期的大风天气、花期至果实生长期高温少雨天气和成熟期连阴雨天气。

Based on the daily average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,sunshine hours,average relative humidity,precipitation,average wind speed per 2 minutes and maximum wind speed data of concentric national basic weather stations from 1981 to 2020.The new method was used to calculate the daily average temperature,maximum wind speed and maximum wind speed,the changes of climate resources and the climatic factors that led to the reduction of yield of concentric round jujube during the 40-year period from 1981 to 2020 and 2021 by using linear trend coefficient and other statistical methods,in order to provide reference for development of jujube industry.The results showed that,1)in Tongxin county,the climate guarantee rate of average temperature,sunshine and accumulated temperature of10℃in annual value of meteorological factors for jujube planting exceed 95%,but the climate guarantee rate of annual precipitation was only 2.5%.The climate guarantee rate of the average temperature in the key development period was more than 80%in the budding period and the leafing period,but less than 80%in the flowering period and the fruit growth period.2)During the whole growth period,the average temperature showed an increasing trend,the average wind speed per 2 minutes showed an increasing trend,and the sunshine hours,precipitation and relative humidity showed no obvious change trend,the above five factors had different changing trends in different growth periods.3)The climatic characteristics of the main growing season of concentric jujube were cold-wet,cold-wet,warm-dry and warm-wet in 4 interdecadal variations.4)The main meteorological factors affecting of Chinese jujube in 2021 were low temperature and rainy in germination stage,windy weather from flowering stage to fruit growing stage,hot and rainy weather from flowering stage to fruit growing stage,and rainy weather during ripening stage.