中国式现代化时空分异特征与驱动因素分析

Analysis of Spatial-temporal Differentiation Characteristics and Driving Factors of Chinese Modernization

本文从经济现代化、社会文明现代化、科技与治理能力现代化、生态文明现代化4个维度出发构建中国式现代化指标体系,利用2012~2022年我国31个省(区、市)面板数据通过熵权法计算现代化的发展水平并探究其时序演变特征;并对4个子维度进行耦合协调分析,探究4个子系统的协调发展度的动态演进过程;最后通过空间计量分析方法探究中国式现代化的影响因素。研究发现:我国整体的现代化子系统协调发展水平较低,但协调发展度呈逐渐上升趋势;我国现代化水平呈现波动上升趋势,形成“东高西低”的格局,现代化水平整体存在较为明显的空间聚集现象;良好的经济发展水平、经济包容性政府调控能力以及人口增速、合理的产业结构及资源效率均能促进现代化水平的提升。

The paper constructs an index system of Chinese-style modernization from the four dimensions of economic modernization,social civilization modernization,science and technology and governance capacity modernization,and ecological civilization modernization.Using the panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2012 to 2022,the development level of modernization is calculated by entropy weight method and its time series evolution characteristics are explored.The coupling and coordination analysis of the four sub-dimensions is carried out to explore the dynamic evolution process of the coordinated development degree of the four subsystems.Finally,the influencing factors of Chinese-style modernization are explored through spatial econometric analysis.The study finds that the overall level of coordinated development of China's modernization subsystem is low,but the degree of coordinated development is gradually rising;china's modernization level shows a fluctuating upward trend,forming a pattern of“high in the east and low in the west”.There is a relatively obvious spatial aggregation phenomenon in the overall modernization level.Good economic development level,economic inclusiveness,government regulation ability and population growth,reasonable industrial structure and resource efficiency can promote the level of modernization.