物流绩效与中国农产品出口空间溢出效应——基于“21世纪海上丝绸之路”共建国家的实证分析

Logistics Performance and Spatial Spillover Effect of China's Agricultural Exports:An Empirical Analysis Based on Co-Building Countries of the"21st Century Maritime Silk Road"

物流绩效直接影响国际贸易的成本与效率,基于2010-2018年“21世纪海上丝绸之路”31个合作伙伴国家数据,运用物流绩效综合指数及清关效率、物流基础设施质量等6个分项指标,采用空间杜宾模型实证分析物流绩效对中国农产品出口的影响。结果表明:中国向合作国家的农产品出口额和共建国家的物流绩效具有空间集聚效应,一国物流绩效提升会使中国向该国出口的农产品增多,周边国家物流绩效的提升也会对中国向该国的农产品出口贸易产生正向促进效应;物流绩效的各个分项指标产生的空间溢出效应不同,提高清关效率等能促进中国向该囯的农产品出口,国际运输便利性则对此影响不显著。因此,应积极促进合作伙伴国家物流绩效水平的提升,加强共建国家之间的交流合作。

Logistics performance directly affects the cost and efficiency of international trade.Based on the data from 31 partner countries of the"21st Century Maritime Silk Road"from 2010 to 2018,this paper employs a spatial Dubin model to empirically analyze the impact of logistics performance on China's agricultural exports.The analysis uses logistics performance comprehensive index and six sub indicators,such as customs clearance efficiency and logistics infrastructure quality.The results show that there is a spatial agglomeration effect between China's agricultural exports to partner countries and the logistics performance of co-building countries.The improvement of logistics performance of a country will increase China's agricultural exports to that country,and the improvement of logistics performance of surrounding countries will also have a positive promoting effect on China's agricultural export trade to that country.Various sub indicators of logistics performance have different spatial spillover effects.Improving customs clearance efficiency can promote China's agricultural exports to the country,and the impact of international transportation convenience is not significant.Therefore,we should actively promote the improvement of logistics performance level of partner countries and strengthen exchanges and cooperation among co-building countries.