1950-2015年中国布鲁菌病空间流行病学分析

Analysis of the spatial epidemiology of brucellosis in China from 1950 to 2015

目的:分析布鲁氏菌病(布病)流行趋势,包括地区和空间分布特征,为布病的早期防治提供依据。方法:采用Excel 2010构建1950-2015年布病数据库,绘制60年间布病发病率、死亡率和月平均发病例数趋势图作趋势分析。通过Arcgis 10.2软件空间统计工具,对2000-2015年布病发病率作空间自相关分析。结果:1950-2009年60年间,中国共报告布病发病927987例,死亡547例,年平均发病率为0.2012(1/100000),年平均死亡率为0.0003(1/100000);布病发病率较高的为内蒙古、黑龙江、山西、新疆等省、自治区;2008-2013年中国布病发病情况的全局空间分布关系为离散模式(Moran′s I<0,P<0.05),2014-2015发病情况的全局空间分布关系为随机模式(P>0.05);高高空间关联模式存在于山西、新疆和宁夏,高低空间关联模式多存在于内蒙古和山西。结论:中国布病发病呈现全局空间负相关关系,高低空间关联模式多存在于内蒙古,高高空间关联模式多存在于山西、新疆和宁夏,应加大对这几个省和自治区布病的监控和防治。

Objective:To investigate the epidemic trend of brucellosis in China,including the characteristics of regional and spatial distribution,and provide a scientific basis for the early prevention of brucellosis.Methods:A database of disease from 1950 to 2015 was constructed using Excel 2010 to draw the trend chart of brucellosis incidence,mortality and monthly average cases for analyzing the trend.The spatial autocorrelation analysis of brucellosis incidence from^(2)000 to 2015 was performed using the Arcgis10.2 software spatial statistical tool.Results:In the 60 years from 1950 to 2009,a total of 927987 cases and 547 deaths of brucellosis were reported in China,with an average annual incidence of 0.2012(1/100000)and mortality of 0.0003(1/100000).The incidence rates of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Shanxi and Xinjiang were higher.The global spatial distribution of brucellosis incidence in China from^(2)008 to 2013 and from^(2)014 to 2015 were discrete mode(Moran′s I<0,P<0.05)and random mode(P>0.05),respectively.The high-altitude spatial association pattern in Shanxi,Xinjiang and Ningxia were found,while the high-altitude spatial association pattern mostly in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi were identified.Conclusions:The prevalence of brucellosis in China shows a negative spatial correlation,with high-altitude spatial correlation pattern mostly in Inner Mongolia,and high-altitude spatial correlation pattern mostly in Shanxi,Xinjiang and Ningxia.The monitoring and prevention of brucellosis in these provinces and autonomous regions should be strengthened.