基于SST的桓仁水库中长期入库径流预报研究

Medium and Long Term Inflow Runoff Prediction of Hengren Reservoir Based on SST

将浑江流域与海洋表面温度(SST)的多极耦合中长期预测方法相结合,建立了桓仁水库中长期入库预报模型,并根据模型模拟,确定与浑江流域径流相关度较高的影响因子。选取浑江流域1988—2017年径流资料进行模型参数率定,利用2018、2019年径流资料对模型进行检验。结果表明,模型预报结果与实际情况较为吻合,预报误差较低。本预报模型可为浑江流域中长期径流预报工作提供新的思路和方法。

The multipole coupling long-term prediction method of Hunjiang River basin and sea surface temperature(SST)is combined,and the medium and long-term inflow prediction model of Hengren Hydropower Station is established.The influencing factors with high correlation with the runoff of Hunjiang River basin are determined according to the model simulation.The flood period of Hunjiang River basin in 2018 and 2019 is selected for model modeling.The model calculation results are in good agreement with the actual situation,and the prediction error is low.The construction of this prediction model provides ideas and reference for the medium and long-term runoff prediction of Hunjiang River basin.