堰塞坝开发利用综合评价方法与应用

Comprehensive evaluation method and application of barrier dam development and utilization

现阶段堰塞坝开发利用工程设计建设大多沿用传统土石坝相关技术理论,应急抢险、风险分析及开发利用可行性分析完成后,缺少针对堰塞坝开发利用效果的定量评价方法。通过分析社会及生态、供水灌溉、发电功能及投资回报等堰塞坝开发利用需求,建立堰塞坝开发利用综合评价指标体系和多级模糊综合评价模型,引入云模型改进的层次分析法确定各指标权重,结合构建的隶属度函数确定各指标隶属度,并以红石岩、唐家山、白格、舟曲泥石流堰塞坝为典型案例,综合评价国内典型堰塞坝开发利用效果。结果表明:堰塞坝开发利用综合评价体系满足需求效果及收益最大化的评价要求,改进的多级模糊综合评价模型较好地解决了评价指标随机性、离散性等问题;综合评价结果与工程实际情况基本相符,评价体系及模型具有较好的适用性。研究成果可为堰塞坝开发利用综合评价提供理论参考和实践依据。

At present,most of the engineering design and construction of barrier dams′development and utilization follow the traditional technical theory of earth-rock dams,and after the completion of emergency rescue,risk analysis,and feasibility analysis of development and utilization,there is no quantitative evaluation method for the development and utilization effect of barrier dams.By analyzing the development and utilization needs of barrier dams such as social benefit and ecology,water supply and irrigation,power generation function,and return on investment,a comprehensive evaluation index system and a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for the development and utilization of barrier dams were established.The weight of each index was determined by introducing the analytic hierarchy method improved by the cloud model,and the membership degree of each index was determined by combining the constructed membership degree function.The development and utilization effect of typical barrier dams in China was comprehensively evaluated by taking the dams of Hongshiyan,Tangjiashan,Baige,and Zhouqu debris flow as typical cases.The results showed that the comprehensive evaluation system of barrier dam development and utilization met the evaluation requirements of maximizing demand effectiveness and benefits,and the improved multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model better solved the problems of randomness and discreteness of evaluation indicators.The comprehensive evaluation results were consistent with the actual situation of the project,and the evaluation system and model had good applicability.The research results can provide theoretical reference and a practical basis for the comprehensive evaluation of barrier dam development and utilization.