经济政策不确定性对企业并购行为的影响研究--基于宏观政策“逆周期”调节精准性的视角

The Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Merger and Acquisition Behavior:A Viewpoint Rooted in the Precision of“Countercyclical”Macro-Policy Adjustments

采用2000—2019年SDC全球并购数据库中国企业的并购案例,分析经济政策不确定性对企业并购行为的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性促进了中国企业的并购行为,增加并购完成数量且缩短并购完成时间。机制分析表明,企业代理问题和管理者过度自信在一定程度上解释了该现象。异质性检验发现,经济下行期、垂直并购和非跨境并购、国有企业、制造业企业和上市公司的并购活动受经济政策不确定性的影响更为显著。因此,经济政策不确定性并没有阻碍企业的并购行为,在宏观政策“逆周期”调节的背景下,政策出台和实施方案需要科学评估,防范企业管理者的非理性动机。

This study employs data from Chinese corporations'merger and acquisition(M&A)cases from the SDC Global M&A Database across 2000 to 2019 to explore the repercussions of e-conomic policy uncertainty on corporate M&As.It reveals that economic policy uncertainty acts as a catalyst for M&A activities among Chinese firms,escalating the count of finalized deals while re-ducing the time to deal completion.A mechanistic examination posits that agency dilemmas and managerial overconfidence partially elucidate this phenomenon.After a heterogeneity analysis is conducted,it is discerned that the ramifications of economic policy uncertainty on M&As are nota-bly accentuated during economic downturns,in vertical and domestic M&As,state-owned enter-prises,manufacturing companies,and publicly traded firms.Consequently,it is suggested that eco-nomic policy uncertainty does not stifle M&A activity.In the context of"countercyclical"macro-policy adjustments,an exigent need arises for scientific evaluation of policy frameworks and exe-cution plans to mitigate potentially irrational motivations of corporate managers.