苏丹在复兴大坝争端中的立场变化及其动因

An Analysis of the Motivations Behind Sudan's Changing Positions Toward the Renaissance Dam Dispute

在复兴大坝争端的不同历史阶段,苏丹秉持灵活务实的对外政策,在埃及和埃塞俄比亚之间采取制衡与对冲的双重策略,但对两国的政策倾向存在差异。苏丹在复兴大坝争端中的立场变化与国内政治和外交形势的变化密切相关。巴希尔时期(2011~2018年),面对内外交困的双重压力,苏丹倾向支持埃塞俄比亚,企图获取经济援助;在过渡政府时期(2019~2021年),苏丹执政联盟面临严峻的政治和经济挑战,被迫放慢在复兴大坝问题上的决策步伐,保持中立;埃塞俄比亚为大坝蓄水后(2021~2023年),在美国明确支持埃及的背景下,苏丹被迫调整立场,转而联手埃及对抗埃塞俄比亚。在复兴大坝争端中,苏丹通过灵活权衡国内局势与地区外交的平衡,动态调整对外政策,在复杂的地缘政治环境中寻求实现国家利益最大化和风险最小化。

At different historical stages of the Renaissance Dam dispute,Sudan has always adhered to a flexible and pragmatic foreign policy,adopting a dual strategy of balancing and hedging between Egypt and Ethiopia,but with differences in policy inclinations towards the two countries.Sudan's changing stance on the Renaissance Dam dispute is inseparable from changes in domestic politics and diplomatic situations.During the Bashir administration period(2011~2018),facing dual domestic and foreign pressures,Sudan chose to tilt towards supporting Ethiopia in an attempt to obtain economic aid.During the transitional government period(2019~2021),Sudan's governing coalition faced tremendous political and economic challenges and was forced to slow decision⁃making on the Renaissance Dam issue and maintain neutrality.After Ethiopia started filling the dam(2021~2023),under explicit US pressure in support of Egypt,Sudan was forced to adjust its position and join hands with Egypt against Ethiopia's unilateral actions.Through flexible balancing of domestic politics and regional diplomacy,Sudan has adopted dynamically adjusted foreign policies on the Renaissance Dam dispute,aiming to maximize national interests and minimize risks amidst the complex geopolitics.