印度对海合会国家实施“西联”政策的动因、路径与限度

India's“Link West”Policy Towards GCC Countries:Motivations,Paths and Limits

印度与海合会国家同为印度洋海域的重要经济体,经贸、能源、侨汇构成了双方传统伙伴关系中的三大支柱。在世界变局加速演进的时代背景下,印度莫迪政府对印度国际地位进行再定位,志在由“平衡型大国”成长为“领导型大国”,也将战略布局从“直接周边”延伸至“扩展周边”,更在外交风格上从“谨慎参与”转变为“积极有为”。在对国际格局、地区局势、国家发展愿景进行综合战略考量、继承“考底利耶主义”传统外交理念的基础上,莫迪政府延续和发展了“西向”政策并提出“西联”政策,将位处“扩展周边”的海合会国家置于“西联”政策的优先位置。印度对海合会国家实施“西联”政策的战略意图清晰、成果显著,以首脑外交引领印海战略伙伴关系提质升级;以能源合作奠定双方战略合作基础;以投资经贸合作推进双方经济改革转型;以防务安全合作提供地区安全治理的有效路径;以人文交流深化印海民意基础。然而,印度外交“多向结盟”策略的投机性、“印度优先”原则的狭隘性、“领导型大国”综合实力不足以及印度教民族主义意识形态极端化等诸多因素,将对“西联”政策的长期有效性构成挑战和制约。

India and GCC countries are both important economies in the Indian Ocean.Economy and trade,energy and overseas remittances constitute the three pillars of the traditional partnership between the both sides.In the context of the accelerated evolution of the world,the Modi government has repositioned India's international status,aiming to grow from a“balancing power”to a“leading power”,and has also extended its strategic layout from“direct neighborhood”to“extended neighborhood”,and has changed its diplomatic style from“cautious participation”to“active and promising”.On the basis of comprehensive strategic consideration of the international pattern,regional situation and national development vision,and inheritance of the traditional diplomatic concept of“Kodiliya's Doctrine”,the Modi government continued and developed the“Look West”policy,proposed the“Link West”policy,and placed GCC countries,which is under the“extended neighborhood”policy,in the priority position of the“Link West”policy.India has a clear strategic intention to implement the“Link West”policy towards GCC countries and has achieved remarkable results.It leads the upgrading of India⁃GCC strategic partnership with summit diplomacy.Energy cooperation lays the foundation for strategic cooperation between the both sides;Investment and economic cooperation promotes economic reform and transformation of both sides;Defense and security cooperation provides an effective path for regional security governance;The people⁃to⁃people exchanges deepen public opinion foundation between India and GCC.However,many factors,such as the speculative nature of India's diplomatic“multi⁃alignment”strategy,the narrow⁃mindedness of the“India first”principle,the lack of comprehensive strength to become a“leading power”and the radicalization of Hindutva ideology,will pose challenges and constraints to the long⁃term effectiveness of the“Link West”policy.