城乡二元结构下中国人口流动格局及其解释——基于流向别的考察

Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Population Flow Networks in China:Based on Four Types of Population Flows

研究人口流动格局对于理解区域人口增减分化、准确把握经济社会发展趋势具有重要意义。利用第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据,将省际人口流动划分为乡-乡、乡-城、城-乡和城-城4类,并基于空间自回归负二项模型,考察4类人口流动网络的空间特征及其影响因素。研究结果表明,2010~2020年,乡-城、城-城人口流动在省际人口流动中的比例上升,乡-乡人口流动的比例下降;4类人口流动网络呈现不同的空间特征,乡-乡、乡-城人口流动呈自西向东趋势,城-乡、城-城人口流动更加多元且出现双向流动趋势;中国人口中心正由单一城市(省份)转向城市群;经济因素依然是影响乡-乡、乡-城人口流动的重要因素,但影响城-乡、城-城人口流动的因素更加复杂多样且经济因素的影响减弱。

Studying population flow,patterns is essential for comprehending regional population changes and economic and social development trends.Using data from the sixth and seventh national popuiation censuses to classify China's interprovincial popuiation flows into four types:rural-urban,rural-rural,urban-urban,and urban-rural,this paper analyzes the spatial characteristics of population flow networks and their influencing factors using a spatial autoregressive negative binomial model.The results show that:The proportion of rural-urban and urban-urban population flows has increased,while the proportion of rural-rural population flows has decreased.Rural-rural and rural-urban population flows tend to move from west to east,while urban-urban and urban-rural population flows are diverse and bi-directional.China's population center is shifting from.single city(province)to an urban agglomeration.While economic factors play a significant role in rural-urban and rural-rural population flows,the factors influencing urban-rural'and urban-urban population flows are complex and diverse.The degree of influence of economic factors on these flows is weakening.