中国粮食主产区耕地利用效率区域差异及影响因素——基于179个地级市的实证研究

Regional Differences in Cultivated Land Utilization Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors for Major Grain Producing Areas in China

[目的]粮食主产区在实现粮食稳产保供中具有重要的战略地位。研究粮食主产区的耕地利用效率及其时空演变特征,旨在为促进粮食主产区耕地资源高效利用、保障粮食安全及实现农业可持续发展提供参考。[方法]创新性地运用两阶段动态网络DEA模型,测算粮食主产区2010—2020年179个地级市耕地利用效率,并通过ArcGIS可视化技术和核密度估计分析其时空演变特征,构建Tobit模型并探究耕地利用效率影响因素。[结果]2010—2020年粮食主产区整体效率水平呈“小幅下降—快速上升—波动增长”的阶段趋势,整体效率水平偏低,仍具有较大提升空间。分阶段来看,生产阶段效率水平始终高于消费阶段,且两阶段效率水平差距有进一步增大的态势;粮食主产区耕地利用效率提升受两阶段效率水平共同作用的影响,生产阶段是效率提升的主要动力,阻力来自于消费阶段效率。分区域来看,松花江流域>长江流域>黄河流域的耕地利用效率,区域不均衡性显著。从空间上来看,整体效率、生产阶段效率高值区呈东北—西南空间分布,并逐渐形成“高—高”集聚和“低—低”集聚的空间格局,消费阶段效率高值区呈离散化分布格局,并未呈现出向提升方向收敛的发展态势。整体、生产阶段和消费阶段的外部影响因素不尽相同,涉及社会经济发展水平、城乡发展水平、科技水平及农业基础设施建设。同时不同因素对不同区域的整体及各子阶段耕地利用效率作用强度及作用方向也存在显著差异。[结论]未来粮食主产区不但要探索区域差异化耕地利用路径,加强各地级市间合作,更要在提升生产阶段效率的同时,重点关注各地级市消费阶段效率提升收敛速度以及与生产阶段效率差距之间的协调。

[Objective]The main grain producing areas have an important strategic position in achieving stable grain production and supply.The cultivated land use efficiency and its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics in the main grain producing areas were studied to promoting the efficient use of cultivated land resources in the main grain producing areas,and ensuring food security and realizing sustainable agricultural development.[Methods]The two-stage dynamic network DEA model was innovatively used to measure cultivated land utilization efficiency of 179 prefecture-level cities in the main grain producing area from 2010 to 2020.The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land use efficiency were analyzed by ArcGIS visualization technology and kernel density estimation.The Tobit model was constructed to explore the influencing factors of cultivated land utilization efficiency.[Results]The overall efficiency level of the main grain producing area from 2010 to 2020 was characterized as"small decline-rapid rise-fluctuating growth",and the overall efficiency level was low and still had great capacity for improvement.The efficiency level of the production stage was always higher than that of the consumption stage.The gap between the efficiency levels of the two stages had a tendency to further increase.The increase in cultivated land utilization efficiency in the main grain producing area was influenced by the combined effect of the efficiency levels during the two stages,with the production stage being the main driver of efficiency improvement.Resistance to improvement came from the efficiency during the consumption stage.By region,cultivated land utilization efficiency followed the order of Songhua River basin>Yangtze River basin>Yellow River basin,with significant regional imbalance.From the spatial point of view,the overall efficiency and high value areas of production stage efficiency were spatially distributed from northeast to southwest,and gradually formed a spatial pattern of"high-high"clustering and"low-low"clustering.The high value areas of consumption stage efficiency showed a discrete distribution pattern,and did not show the development trend of convergence in the direction of improvement.The external influencing factors of the overall,production,and consumption stages were different,involving the level of socio-economic development,urban and rural development,science and technology,and agricultural infrastructure construction.There were significant differences in the intensity and direction of different factors on the overall and sub-stage cultivated land use efficiency in different regions.[Conclusion]In the future,the main grain producing areas should not only explore the path of regional differentiated cultivated land use,strengthen cooperation among prefecture-level cities,but also focus on the convergence speed of efficiency improvement in consumption stage and the coordination with the efficiency gap in production stage while improving the efficiency of production stage.