河北省2010—2020年生态产品价值空间演变特征及其影响因素

Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Affecting Factors of Ecological Product Value in Hebei Province from 2010 to 2020

[目的]评估河北省生态产品价值(EPV),探索其空间演变背后的驱动因子,为构筑京津冀生态安全屏障,加快生态文明建设提供科学依据。[方法]基于当量因子法核算2010,2015,2020年河北省168个县区的EPV,利用全局莫兰指数、高/低聚类指数、热点分析法分析其空间分布演变和聚类演变特征,并借助地理探测器探测其主要驱动力。[结果]①2010—2020年河北省EPV均突破3.80×10^(11)元,整体上大幅提高,呈先平稳后急速上升的态势,到2020年突破4.20×10^(11)元;林地EPV最高,始终是所占比例最大的生态产品类型,水域次之且始终是变化量和变化率最大的类型。②2010—2015年EPV空间分布呈现出北高南低,西高东低的特征,高值集中于北部的燕山、坝上高原地区和西部的太行山地区,低值集中于东南部的河北平原地区;2015—2020年呈现出北高南低,东西高,中部低的特征。③2010—2020年空间聚类表现为显著高值集聚,冷热点分布呈现与空间分布相似的规律。④从单因子探测看,CO表面浓度、O_(3)浓度、年均气温是EPV空间演变的主导因子,人均GDP次之,社会因子的解释力相对最弱;从双因子交互探测看,3期中起主导作用的组合因子分别是人均GDP∩NO_(2)表面浓度、高程∩O_(3)浓度和人均GDP∩CO表面浓度,其解释度(q值)分别为0.71,0.73,0.66。[结论]林地和水域对提高生态产品价值具有重要作用,但空间上差距较大,为使其产生更加积极变化,不仅要考虑生态单因子的强大驱动力,也应充分认识驱动力来源的复杂性和非线性。

[Objective]The ecological product values(EPV)in Hebei Province were evaluated and the driving factors of their spatial change were also explored,in order to provide a scientific foundation for establishing an ecological security barrier in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region while expediting ecological civilization development.[Methods]The EPV were computed for 168 counties in Hebei Province during 2010,2015,and 2020 by use of the equivalent factor method.Spatial distribution evolution and clustering characteristics were analyzed utilizing the global Moran index,high/low clustering index,and the hotspot analysis method.Geographic detector was employed to identify the primary driving forces.[Results]①Between 2010 and 2020,Hebei Province's EPV surpassed 3.80×10^(11)yuan,exhibiting notable overall improvement.EPV exhibited a pattern of gradual increase followed by rapid growth,exceeding 4.20×10^(11)yuan by 2020.Forest land had the highest EPV,consistently dominating the ecological product types.Water areas had the next highest EPV,and experienced the most substantial changes in both amount and rate.②During 2010 to 2015,EPV's spatial distribution exhibited a north-south and west-east dichotomy,with high values concentrated in the Northern Yanshan and Bashang Plateau regions,as well as in the Western Taihang Mountain area,while lower values clustered in the Southeastern Hebei Plain.During 2015 to 2020,the north-south divide persisted,with added east-west variation and central low values.③From 2010 to 2020,significant high-value clustering was observed spatially,mirroring the distribution pattern of cold and hot spots.④Single-factor analysis identified CO surface concentration,O_(3)concentration,and average annual temperature as primary influencers of EPV's spatial evolution.Per capita GDP emerged as the secondary vital factor,while the impact of social factors remained comparatively weak.Dual-factor interaction analysis revealed that the leading combinations of factors during the three periods were per capita GDP∩NO_(2)surface concentration,elevation∩O_(3)concentration,and per capita GDP∩CO surface concentration,with corresponding q values of 0.71,0.73,and 0.66,respectively.[Conclusion]While forest land and water areas hold pivotal roles in augmenting EPV,significant spatial disparities exist.To drive more positive transformations,it is essential to not only consider robust ecological single-factor drivers,but also to comprehensively grasp the intricate and nonlinear nature of driving force origins.