黄淮海5省粮食生产碳排放效率空间分异及动态演变

Spatial Differentiation and Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Emission Efficiency of Grain Production in Five Provinces of Huang-Huai-Hai Region

[目的]探究“双碳”目标背景下黄淮海5省74市粮食生产碳排放效率并量化其空间分异及动态演变,旨在分析黄淮海5省粮食生产碳排放效率现状,促进黄淮海5省粮食绿色低碳生产。[方法]采用碳排放系数法和三阶段超效率SBM模型分别测算2011—2020年黄淮海5省74市粮食生产碳排放及碳排放效率,借助泰尔指数和核密度估计探究粮食生产碳排放效率的空间分异及动态演变。[结果]①研究期内,黄淮海5省市域粮食生产碳排放呈“M”型波动下降趋势,但下降缓慢;其中,化肥使用是导致粮食碳排放的主要原因。②黄淮海5省市域粮食生产碳排放效率呈先降后升的演变趋势,第一阶段效率均值为0.59,剔除环境变量和随机误差对效率值的影响,第三阶段效率均值为0.48,较第一阶段效率值下降18.6%;其中,滁州、驻马店、德州等地效率值较高,而黄山、威海等地效率值较低。③粮食生产碳排放效率空间差异呈上升趋势,区域内差异是影响总体差异的主要因素,其中河南省各市差异最为显著。④样本考察期内,核密度曲线由“单峰状”向“双峰状”转变,主峰呈波动上升且轻微右移趋势,侧峰隆起幅度较小,表明黄淮海5省粮食生产碳排放效率整体水平提高,地区差异增大,并呈多极化趋势发展。[结论]黄淮海5省粮食生产碳排放效率整体水平较低,有明显的空间分异特征,未来各地区应减少化肥等物资投入,并采用“对口帮扶”策略,促进各地区粮食生产技术良性互动,以缩小区域间粮食生产碳排放效率地区差异。

[Objective]The carbon emission efficiency of grain production was determined for 74 cities in the five provinces of Huang-Huai-Hai region,and spatial differentiation and dynamic evolution were quantified in light of the"double carbon"goals development strategy and goals.The current situation of carbon emission efficiency of grain production in the five provinces of Huang-Huai-Hai region was analyzed in order to promote green and low-carbon grain production in the region.[Methods]The carbon emission coefficient method and the three-stage super-efficiency SBM model were used to measure carbon emissions and carbon emission efficiencies of grain production for 74 cities in the five provinces of Huang-Huai-Hai region from 2011 to 2020.The spatial differentiation and dynamic evolution of carbon emission efficiency of grain production were then determined by means of the Theil index and kernel density estimation.[Results]①Carbon emissions of grain production in the five provinces and cities of Huang-Huai-Hai region during the study period showed a fluctuating downward trend with an"M"shape,but the decline was slow.The use of chemical fertilizers was the main cause of grain carbon emissions.②The carbon emission efficiency of grain production in the five provinces and cities of Huang-Huai-Hai region initially decreased and then increased.The average efficiency of the first stage was 0.59.Excluding the influence of environmental variables and random errors on the efficiency value,the average efficiency of the third stage was 0.48,which was 18.6%lower than the efficiency value of the first stage.Chuzhou,Zhumadian,Dezhou,and other cities had higher efficiency values,while Huangshan,Weihai,and other cities had lower efficiency values.③The spatial differences of the carbon emission efficiency of grain production was on the rise,and the differences within the region were the main factor affecting the overall difference,among which the difference between cities in Henan Province was the most significant.④During the sample investigation period,the core density curve changed from a"single-peak shape"to a"double-peak shape"where the main peak showed a fluctuating rise and a slight shift to the right,and the secondary peak maximum was smaller,indicating that the overall level of carbon emission efficiency of grain production in the five provinces of Huang-Huai-Hai region had increased,regional differences had increased,and the region showed a multi-polar trend.[Conclusion]The overall level of carbon emission efficiency of grain production in the five provinces of Huang-Huai-Hai region was low,and there were obvious spatial differentiation characteristics.In the future,all regions should reduce the input of materials such as chemical fertilizers,and adopt the strategy of"counterpart assistance"to promote the positive interaction of grain production technology in various regions so as to narrow regional differences in the carbon emission efficiency of grain production among regions.