我国中等职业教育规模的区域差异、空间效应与演进态势

Regional Differences,Spatial Effects and Dynamic Evolution of Secondary Vocational Education Scale in China

基于2015-2021年全国31个省区市的数据,采用泰尔指数、全局Moran指数、局部Moran指数、冷热点分析以及核密度估计对我国中等职业教育规模的区域差异、空间集聚结构与演进态势进行测度与评价。结果显示:第一,我国中等职业教育规模存在合理水平的差异,且差异程度轻度提高。第二,我国31个省区市中等职业教育规模存在正的空间自相关,两极分化趋势明显;高-高集聚模式主要集中于中部地区与部分西南地区,低-低集聚模式主要集中于东北地区与西部地区;热点区主要分布在山东、河南、安徽、江西、广西,冷点区分布在内蒙古与新疆;全国中等职业教育规模整体空间结构相对稳定,东南沿海地区空间格局变动较为活跃。第三,全国整体、高值区、中值区与低值区的中等职业教育规模水平保持平稳;全国的两极分化现象逐步弱化;高值区与中值区的内部差异小于低值区内部的差异,且高值区与中值区的内部差异在逐步减弱。

Based on the data of 31 provinces in China from 2015 to 2021,this paper measures and evaluates the regional differences,spatial agglomeration structure and evolution trend of the scale of secondary vocational education in China by using Theil index,global Moran index,local Moran index,cold and hot spot analysis,kernel density function.The research results show that:Firstly,there are reasonable differences in the scale of secondary vocational education in China,and the degree of differences has slightly increased.Secondly,there is a positive spatial autocorrelation in the scale of secondary vocational education in 31 provinces,with a clear trend of two-level differentiation;the high-high agglomeration mode is mainly concentrated in the central region and some southwestern regions,while the low-low agglomeration mode is mainly concentrated in the northeast and western regions;hot spots are mainly distributed in Shandong,Henan,Anhui,Jiangxi and Guangxi,Cold spot areas are distributed in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang;the overall spatial structure of secondary vocational education in China is relatively stable,and the spatial pattern of the southeastern coastal areas is relatively active.Thirdly,the scale and level of secondary vocational education in the overall,high-value,median,and low-value areas of the country remain stable;the polarization phenomenon across the country is gradually weakening;the internal difference between the high-value area and the median area is smaller than the internal difference between the low-value area,and the internal difference between the high-value area and the median area is gradually weakening.