关税壁垒对中美贸易及我国就业的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Tariff Barriers on Sino-US Trade and Employment in China

本文通过构建关税壁垒策略选择演化博弈模型,提出关税对贸易及就业影响的相关假设,并通过稳定点分析、数值仿真分析,演化得到关税壁垒措施下影响贸易与就业的三大系数。在此基础上,通过实证分析对演化博弈相关假设及结果进行验证。选取2012~2021年全部规模以上工业企业面板数据,构建PVAR模型,就关税壁垒下我国对美贸易与就业的关系进行实证分析。研究发现,关税壁垒与我国出口贸易存在负相关关系,贸易需求下降会导致劳动力需求减少,从而关税壁垒对就业产生负向作用;出口贸易对我国就业存在正向促进作用;短期内就业对出口贸易会产生负向影响,但长期来看,负向影响会逐渐减弱。政府补贴与我国就业人数和出口贸易额均呈现正相关关系,与贸易的相关性强于就业。当研发投入增加时,我国出口贸易额同时增加,但由于替代效应,对就业存在短期抑制作用。当退出成本增加时,对贸易和就业均产生负向影响。

This article constructs a tariff barrier strategy selection evolution game model,the relevant assumptions of tariff impact on trade and employment are established,and through stability point analysis and numerical simulation analysis,three major impact coefficients affecting trade and employment under tariff barrier measures are evolved.On this basis,the hypotheses and results of evolutionary games are verified through empirical analysis.From 2012 to 2021,the panel data of all industrial enterprises above designated size were selected to construct a PVAR model for empirical analysis.It is found that tariff barriers have a negative correlation with China's export trade,and tariff barriers have a negative effect on employment.Export trade has a positive role in promoting employment in China;In the short term,employment will have a negative impact on export trade,but in the long term,the negative impact will gradually weaken.Government subsidies are positively correlated with the number of employment and export trade in China,and the correlation with trade is stronger than employment.When R&D investment increases,China's export trade volume increases at the same time,but due to the substitution effect,there is a short-term inhibitory effect on employment.When exit costs increase,there are negative effects on both trade and employment.