宏观政策、服务业占比与劳动收入份额

Macroeconomic Policies,Industrial Structure and Labor Share

金融和财税等宏观政策的效果具有产业异质性效应,这些宏观政策不仅影响经济增长,更会通过产业结构影响收入分配。本文首先基于货币政策传导渠道和财政政策的生产要素价格渠道分析货币政策和财政政策对服务业占比的影响,并进一步考察其对初次分配中的劳动收入份额的影响并提出理论假说。将利率政策和社保缴费率政策作为代表性宏观调控政策应用于城市面板数据,采用动态面板模型系统GMM法研究后发现:降低利率对于服务业占比具有负向影响,而降低社保缴费率则显著提升了服务业占比;降低利率使得劳动收入份额显著降低,而降低社保缴费率则显著提升了劳动收入份额;机制分析表明,资本劳动比(资本深化程度)是政策影响劳动收入份额的重要渠道,降息政策显著提高了城市资本劳动比,而降低社保缴费率则呈现出相反的效果;异质性研究表明在东部地区降低利率和社保缴费率对服务业占比和劳动收入份额的影响最为明显。在我国服务业占比低于其他同等发展水平经济的情况下,本文为加强财政政策和货币政策协调配合促进服务业发展和加快实现共同富裕提供了理论和实证依据。

Macro policies such as finance and taxation have heterogeneous effect across industries. These macro policies not only affect economic growth, but also affect income distribution through industrial structure. Based on the transmission channel of monetary policy and the production factors' price channel of fiscal policy, this paper firstly analyzes the impact of monetary policy and fiscal policy on the service industry share and the labor share, and proposes theoretical hypothesizes. Then, by using the city panel data from 2007 to 2016 and the dynamic panel model, this paper selects interest rate policy and social security contribution rate policy as representative policies and evaluates the effect of them on the service industry share and the labor share, and arrives at the following conclusion: first, lowering interest rate has a negative impact on the service industry share, both in terms of GDP and employment, while lowering social security contribution rate significantly increases the service industry share. Secondly, further research finds that lowering interest rate significantly reduces the labor income share, while lowering social security contribution rate significantly increases the labor income share. Thirdly, the heterogeneity analysis shows that the reduction of interest rate and social security contribution rate has the most obvious impact on the service industry share and labor income share in the eastern region. Under the situation that China's service industry share is significantly lower than the average level of countries in the same income group, this paper provides enlightenment for strengthening the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy to promote the development of service industry and common prosperity.