我国制造业产业链关键环节辨识

Identification of Key Links in Manufacturing Industry Chain

为了辨识我国制造业产业链的关键环节,以保证产业链的自主可控和安全可靠。本文构建了一种阐释产业链上、中、下游的新古典经济增长模型,研究了均衡状态产业链上下游环节的产出弹性,对经济机理进行模拟分析;并基于制造业产业链网络系统建立SVAR模型,以识别产业链韧性的关键环节;另外依据2000-2020年中国投入产出数据从提升制造业产业链弹性和韧性的视角进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)对于制造业产业链的中游至下游环节,其产出弹性大于上游至中游环节,即中游至下游环节是提升制造业产业链价值增值的关键,且产业链各环节产出弹性的协同提升会产生“放大器”效应;(2)对于制造业产业链的上游至中游环节,其韧性更强。集中优势资源合力攻关制造业产业链中游至下游的低韧性环节,是保障全产业链自主可控和安全可靠的关键。因此,本研究为优化中国制造业产业链结构和提高产业链安全水平提供了经验证据和对策启示。

In order to identify the key links in China's manufacturing industry chain and ensure its autonomy, controllability, safety, and reliability, this article constructs a neoclassical economic growth model with the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the industrial chain. We study the output elasticity of the upstream to downstream link in the industrial chain under equilibrium conditions, that is, simulating and analyzing the economic mechanism. And we establish an SVAR model based on the manufacturing industry chain network to identify key links in the resilience of the industry chain. Furthermore, empirical analysis based on China's input-output data from 2000 to 2020 is conducted from the perspective of enhancing the elasticity and resilience of the manufacturing industry chain. The results show that:(1) For the midstream to downstream link of the manufacturing industry chain, the output elasticity is greater than that of the upstream to midstream link. It means that midstream to downstream link is the key to improving the added value of the manufacturing industry chain, and the synergistic improvement of output elasticity in each link of the industry chain will produce an “amplifier” effect;(2) For the upstream to midstream link of the manufacturing industry chain, the resilience is stronger. The key to ensuring the autonomy, controllability, safety, and reliability of the entire manufacturing industry chain is to concentrate advantageous resources and work together to tackle the low resilience link from the middle to the downstream. Therefore, this study provides empirical evidence and policy implications for optimizing the structure of China's manufacturing industry chain and improving the industry chain security.