风险与成本视阈下中国石油进口市场布局优化

Optimizing the Layout of China's Petroleum Import Market from the Perspective of Overall Risk and Cost

文章从供应链3个维度,选择8种指标构建了石油进口风险评价体系,在多维度识别2019—2021年中国石油进口国别风险的基础上,统筹综合风险最小与平均成本最低双重目标探究了石油进口市场布局优化策略,并模拟了3种潜在情境下的市场布局优化效果。结果表明:(1)中国石油进口风险、成本及其变动趋势存在显著的国别差异性,具有较大的优化空间。(2)优化后的市场布局倾向于增加自哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、马来西亚等国,而减少自沙特阿拉伯、安哥拉、英国等国的进口份额,如此既有利于降低综合风险,也有助于减少平均成本,其中降低风险的效果尤为显著,这主要归功于自沙特阿拉伯进口份额的优化。(3)中国石油进口需求增长和OPEC国家对华出口下降均显著加大了中国进口风险与成本,而金砖国家国别风险下降则大幅降低了中国进口综合风险。因此,中国应稳定大国经贸关系、大力发展新能源产业、积极优化市场布局以降低石油进口综合风险与平均成本,多维度健全风险预警与防控体系以保障进口供应链安全。

This study constructs an evaluation system of petroleum import risk based on three dimensions of the supply chain and eight selected indicators.After a multidimensional identification of the country-specific risks associated with China's petroleum imports from 2019 to 2021,the research explores strategies for optimizing the import market layout with dual objectives of minimizing overall risk and achieving the lowest average cost.The study also simulates the effects of market layout optimization under three potential scenarios.The results indicate the following:1) Significant countryspecific differences exist in the risks,costs,and their trends associated with China's petroleum imports,presenting substantial potential for optimization.2) Optimized market layout tends to increase imports from countries such as Colombia,Ecuador,and Malaysia,and decrease shares from countries such as Saudi Arabia,Angola,and the United Kingdom.This approach is beneficial for lowering overall risks and assisting in reducing average costs.Notably,the effect of risk reduction is particularly significant,mainly attributed to the optimization of import shares from Saudi Arabia.3)The growth in China's petroleum import demand and the significant decrease in OPEC countries' exports to China have increased the overall risks and costs of China's imports.However,the substantial reduction in country-specific risks from BRICS nations has significantly mitigated China's overall import risk.Therefore,China should focus on stabilizing economic relationships with major nations,promoting the development of new energy industries,actively optimizing market layouts to reduce overall petroleum import risks and average costs,and establishing a multidimensional risk warning and control system to ensure the security of the import supply chain.