不同城镇化水平地区农户生计策略特征及其影响因素

Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Farmers' Livelihood Strategies in Different Urbanization Levels

城镇化水平对农户生计策略选择具有重要影响。文章以上海青浦区、湖南桃江县和宁夏彭阳县代表城镇化水平高、中、低地区,基于452份农户问卷调查数据,利用两步聚类法、单因素方差与事后多重检验划分农户生计策略类型,分析了不同地区农户生计资本特征;同时采用无序多分类Logistic回归模型考察了农户生计策略选择的影响因素。结果表明:(1)农户生计策略可划分为专业化种植—商业型生计(LS1)、固定工作型生计(LS2)、种养结合—劳动力转移型生计(LS3)、混合型生计(LS4)、经济作物种植—劳动力转移型生计(LS5)。其中,青浦区以LS2和LS5为主,桃江县以LS1、LS3和LS4为主,彭阳县则以LS2和LS3为主。(2)总体上,农户的自然资本和金融资本远低于人力资本、物质资本和社会资本;地区差异上,农户人力、金融、物质资本以及总生计资本的高低与地区城镇化水平具有一致性。(3)相对于LS5,拥有较高自然资本和社会资本的农户群体更倾向于选择LS1;拥有较高人力资本与自然资本、户主年龄较小的农户群体更倾向于选择LS2;金融资本越低、农业收入占比和生计多样化指数越高、户主年龄越小的农户群体更倾向于选择LS3;金融资本越低、拥有越高的农业收入占比和生计多样化指数的农户群体更倾向于选择LS4。

Farmers' livelihood strategies are deeply influenced by urbanization level.This article taks Qingpu District in Shanghai,Taojiang County in Hunan,and Pengyang County in Ningxia as the representative areas with high-,medium-,and low-level urbanization.Based on the survey data of farmers,it uses two-step clustering method,single factor variance,and post multiple tests to divide the types of farmers' livelihood strategies and analyzes the characteristics of farmers' livelihood capital in different regions.Based on the above,it uses an unordered multi-classification logistic regression model to examine the driving factors of farmers' livelihood strategy selection.Results show that:1) The types of farmers' livelihood strategies in the study area can be classified into five categories,namely specialized cultivation and business livelihood(LS1),fixed-work livelihood(LS2),planting-breeding and migrant work livelihood(LS3),diversified livelihood(LS4),and cash crop cultivation and migrant work livelihood(LS5).Farmers in Qingpu are more likely to adopt LS2and LS5,farmers in Taojiang are more mainly adopt LS1,LS3and LS4,and farmers in Pengyang mainly adopt LS2and LS3.2) Overall,natural capital and financial capital are far lower than human capital,material capital and social capital.At the regional level,the level of human capital,financial capital,material capital,and total livelihood capital is consistent with the level of regional economic development.3) For the total sample,compared to LS5,farmers with higher natural and social capitals tend to choose LS1.Farmers with higher human capital and natural capital,and younger heads of household are more inclined to choose LS2.The lower the financial capital,the higher the proportion of agricultural income and the diversification index of livelihoods,and the younger the age of the head of household,the more likely the farmer group to choose LS3.Farmers with lower financial capital,a higher proportion of agricultural income and livelihood diversification index tend to choose LS4.