环渤海地区生态福利绩效水平时空特征及其影响因素

Spatial-temporal Pattern of Ecological Well-Being Performance Level and Its Influencing Factors in Bohai Sea Rim Region

文章通过构建生态福利绩效评价指标体系,采用超效率EBM模型对2006—2021年环渤海地区生态福利绩效进行了定量测度,在此基础上利用空间变差函数、空间自相关分析和MGWR模型对生态福利绩效时空格局演变特征及影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:(1)2006—2021年环渤海地区生态福利绩效呈波动上升趋势,但整体水平偏低,增速极为缓慢,与经济增长存在脱钩问题。(2)环渤海地区生态福利绩效的空间分异经历了先减小后增大的过程,东北—西南方向上的空间差异最大,胶东半岛和北京为高值分布区,低值区集中于辽中南城市群和鲁南经济带。(3)环渤海地区生态福利绩效存在显著的空间正自相关性,且随时间演进,空间自相关性呈增强趋势,热点区分布于京津和胶东半岛并形成双核结构,冷点区连片分布于辽宁和鲁西南。(4)生态福利绩效各影响因素的作用方向和强度存在显著空间异质性。其中,经济发展水平和政府行政能力对生态福利绩效具有正向影响,产业结构和对外开放水平的作用方向具有一定的阶段性特征,环境规制和城镇化水平对生态福利绩效具有抑制效应。

This paper constructs an evaluation index system of ecological well-being performance,uses the Super-EBM model to quantitatively measure the ecological well-being performance of the Bohai Sea Rim region from 2006 to 2021,and analyzes the spatial-temporal pattern of ecological well-being performance and its influencing factors by the means of the spatial variogram function,spatial autocorrelation analysis and MGWR model.The results show that:1) The ecological well-being performance in the Bohai Sea Rim region shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2006 to 2021,the overall level of ecological well-being performance is low,the growth rate is extremely slow,and there is a decoupling problem with economic growth.2) The spatial differentiation of ecological well-being performance in the Bohai Sea Rim region has experienced a process of decreasing and then increasing,with the largest spatial differences in the northeastsouthwest direction.The Jiaodong Peninsula and Beijing are high-value distribution areas,and the low-value areas are distributed in the Mid-southern Liaoning urban agglomeration and the economic belt of southern Shandong Province.3)There is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the ecological well-being performance of the Bohai Sea Rim,and the spatial autocorrelation tends to increase over time.The hotspots are distributed in Beijing-Tianjin and Jiaodong Peninsula and form a double-core structure,and the coldspots are contiguously distributed in Liaoning and southwest of Shandong.4) There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the direction and intensity of the influences on ecological wellbeing performance.Economic development level and government administrative capacity have positive effects on the ecological well-being performance,industrial structure and opening-up level have significant stage characteristics,environmental regulation and urbanization level have a negative effect on the ecological well-being performance.