一个具有国企并且私企数目可变的异质性预期蛛网模型

A Cobweb Model of Heterogeneous Expectations with a State-owned Firm and a Variable Number of Private Firms

受经典的异质性预期演化模型启发,为研究中国问题,本文结合实际,构建了一个具有国企并且私企数目可变的异质性预期蛛网模型。研究发现,市场均衡状态受私企策略转换强度及生产技术水平影响。与此同时,国企在稳定市场方面发挥着不可替代的作用。本文研究结果对分析市场稳定状态、国企存在的必要性等具有现实意义。

The classic evolutionary cobweb model with heterogeneous expectations has been extensively developed since it was proposed by Brock and Hommes,and has been deeply applied in the aspects of stocks,futures and asset pricing.However,unlike Western countries,state-owned enterprises play an important role in the national economy of China and have made important contributions to the healthy and stable development of Chinese economy.Therefore,state-owned enterprises whose goal is to maximize national welfare are included in the model of Brock and Hommes.Not only that,the variability of the number of private firms is considered since we observe that firms in the real economy are not static and private firms aiming to maximize their own profits are always entering and exiting the market.A cobweb model of heterogeneous expectations with stateowned enterprises and a variable number of private enterprises which is more in line with China’s reality are considered.It is found that with the change of private enterprises'intensity of choice to switch predictors and production technology,the entire market will have complex dynamic characteristics,such as bifurcations and chaos.With the increase of private enterprises'intensity of choice to switch predictors,the complexity of the market equilibrium continues to increase,while the degree of market competition first increases and then decreases,while consumer welfare first increases and then falls into a cyclical cycle or even chaos.What’s more,the degree of market stability and competition of manufacturers varies with different production technolo⁃gies.Under the condition of medium technology level,the market competition is more intense and market stability is difficult to achieve.Finally,it is found that state-owned enterprises play an irreplaceable role in stabilizing the market,and this stabilizing role continues to become prominent with the increase in the level of production technology.The results of this paper are of practical significance for analyzing the stability of the market and the necessity of the existence of state-owned enterprises.