美国“印太”小多边主义的生成机制探析

The Analysis of the Generation Mechanism of the US'Minilateralism in the"Indo-Pacific"Region

在“印太”地区通过小多边主义实施对华遏制战略已成为美国外交战略的主轴。根据美国与盟伴在秩序愿景和威胁认知感的匹配组合,可以将小多边主义划分为全域型、制度型、安全型和现状型四种类型。当美国与盟伴的秩序愿景一致时,如果美国对华产生的“威胁认知”较强,这种情景会导致生成全域型小多边主义,其对华“脱钩”强度也最高。当美国与盟伴的秩序愿景一致性时,如果美国对华产生的“威胁认知”较弱,这种情景会导致生成制度型小多边主义,其对华“脱钩”强度较高。当美国与盟伴的秩序愿景存在差异时,如果美国对华产生的“威胁认知”较强,这种情景会导致生成安全型小多边主义,其对华“脱钩”强度属于中等水平。当美国与盟伴的秩序愿景存在差异时,如果美国对华产生的“威胁认知”较弱,这种情景会导致生成现状型小多边主义,其对华“脱钩”强度最低。奥巴马政府、特朗普政府以及拜登政府采取的对华战略和相关案例可以检验美国“印太”小多边主义生成的因果机制。

The United States'strategic containment of China through minilateralism in the"Indo-Pacific"region has become the main axis of its diplomatic strategy.By combining the vision of order and perception of threat between the United States and its allies and partners,minilateralism can be divided into four ideal types:the hybrid model,the security model,the institutional model,and the status quo model.When the United States and its allies have the same vision of order,if the United States has a strong"perception of threat"toward China,this scenario will lead to the formation of a hybrid model,and its"decoupling"intensity from China is also the highest.When the United States and its allies have the same vision of order,if the United States has a weak""perception of threat"toward China,this scenario will lead to the emergence of an institutional model,which has a higher degree of"decoupling"from China.When the United States and its allies have different visions of order,if the United States has a strong"perception of threat"toward China,this scenario will lead to the formation of a security model,and its"decoupling"intensity from China is at a medium level.When the United States and its allies have different visions of order,if the"perception of threat"is weak,this scenario will lead to the emergence of a status quo model,which has the lowest level of"decoupling"from China.The strategies toward China adopted by the Obama,Trump,and Biden administrations and their related cases can verify the causal mechanism generated by the US"Indo-Pacific"minilateralism.