数字经济规模的核算——结合国民账户与增长核算的框架

Accounting for the Scale of the Digital Economy:A Framework Combining National Accounts and Growth Accounting

如何衡量数字经济的规模及其结构分布影响着我们对于数字经济的评价与监管。然而,创新造成的产业结构性变化增加了数字经济核算的难度。本文结合国民账户与增长核算的方法,把数字经济分为创新型和效率型两种增长模式分别核算。对于能够识别产业边界,并具有调查数据支持的创新型数字经济部分,采用国民账户的方法核算;对于与传统产业深度融合,不易剥离的效率型数字经济部分,通过增长核算的方法估算经济增加值。研究结果显示:(1)2012—2018年,中国数字经济的规模大约占GDP的10%~20%,同期美国数字经济的规模稳定在GDP的20%左右;(2)无论中国还是美国,虽然创新型数字经济更容易被观察到,但是,效率型数字经济所产生的经济效益远远高于创新型数字经济;(3)在创新型数字经济内部,虽然以电子交易和数字化通讯、媒体为代表的数字服务业对民生、文化、政治的影响力更大,但是,数字基础产业的经济增加值高于数字服务业1~2倍。本研究有助于深化我们对于数字经济的理解,提出的核算方案对于调整、完善现有的国民经济统计体系具有参考价值。

The development of information technology has given rise to the digital economy,significantly altering original production and lifestyle.Scholars both domestically and abroad believe that the accounting system underestimates the contribution of the digital economy to gross domestic product(GDP),leading to errors in productivity accounting.Therefore,in the era of the digital economy,adjusting conventional GDP accounting methods and accurately assessing the output level and structural distribution of the digital economy to ensure the accuracy of macroeconomic monitoring has become an important issue for academia and regulatory authorities.This study aims to establish an accounting framework that comprehensively covers the digital economy based on the general GDP accounting framework.It seeks to reduce errors in GDP accounting under the rapid development of the digital economy and more accurately measure the size and structural distribution of the digital economy.Currently,challenges in accounting for the digital economy stem from two aspects.Firstly,the emergence of innovative businesses and the blurred boundaries of production lead to omissions or misclassifications in business categorization.Secondly,due to the integration of the digital economy with the traditional economy,it is difficult to identify and separate the GDP generated by the digital economy.Addressing these issues,this paper,based on the general GDP accounting framework,employs methods from national accounts and growth accounting to distinguish between two growth modes in the digital economy:innovation-and efficiency-driven modes.For the innovative segment of the digital economy,which can be identified in terms of industry boundaries and is supported by survey data,national accounts methods are applied.This involves accounting for the digital economy’s scale through public data sources such as China Statistical Yearbook and China Input-Output Tables after theoretically defining its scope and boundaries.As for the efficiency-driven segment of the digital economy that is deeply integrated with traditional industries and challenging to separate,economic value is estimated through growth accounting methods.Drawing on existing research and employing a meta-analytical approach,this paper comprehensively estimates the economic value generated in the traditional economy due to the application of information and communication technology(ICT),forming a valuation range.The results from both methods are then combined to obtain the overall value added scale of the digital economy.The research results are as follows.(1)From 2012 to 2018,the scale of China’s digital economy accounted for about 10%-20%of GDP,while the scale of the US digital economy was stable at about 20%of GDP.(2)Regardless of China or the United States,the volume of the efficiency-driven digital economy is higher than the innovation-driven digital economy.(3)Within the digital innovation industry,although the digital service industry represented by electronic transactions,digital communication and media has a greater influence on people’s livelihood,culture and politics,the economic added value of the digital basic industry is 1-2 times higher than that of the digital service industry.Compared to existing research,this paper makes marginal contributions in three main aspects.Firstly,it establishes the accounting methods for the digital economy on the basis of efficiency-and innovation-driven growth theories,thereby enhancing the theoretical foundation of the accounting process.Secondly,addressing the two growth types within the digital economy,it combines methods from national accounts and growth accounting to improve the accuracy and operability of digital economy accounting.Thirdly,in response to the significant variations in the estimation results of the contribution of ICT to China’s economic growth in existing research,the paper adopts a meta-analytical approach to establish upper and lower limits for the value added of efficiency-driven digital economy in China.Additionally,the paper analyzes the influencing factors contributing to errors in digital economy accounting and suggests directions for improvement.