数字化金融何以影响中国居民储蓄率——基于双通道心理账户理论的分析

How Does Digital Finance Affect the Saving Rate of Chinese Residents?Analysis Based on the Theory of Double-entry Mental Accounting

随着数字化的快速发展,居民消费、借贷与储蓄行为方式也发生了深刻变化。本文通过构建区分了传统现金账户和数字金融账户的双通道心理账户模型,考察人们的消费、借贷和储蓄行为,从理论逻辑上揭示了数字化金融发展导致居民储蓄率下降的内在机制:在数字金融账户中,人们消费时通过移动支付的失去感更少、获得感更多,而借钱时的尴尬感更少且借贷成本降低,这导致居民更多消费和更多借贷消费,从而引致储蓄率下降。本文将中国数字普惠金融指数与中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS)相结合,构建面板数据进行经验实证,发现数字化金融与居民储蓄率之间存在显著的负向关系,并从实证层面证实了移动支付和网络借贷通过刺激居民消费和居民借贷消费进而降低居民储蓄率的理论判断。本文的研究结论有助于厘清数字化金融对居民储蓄行为的影响后果,为数字化建设过程中的经济高质量发展提供了理论和经验支持。

In recent years,the decline in the domestic saving rate and the rapid increase in the leverage ratio have attracted the attention of academic and policy circles.It can be seen directly from the data that the leverage ratio of Chinese residents has increased from 27.3%in 2010 to 55.2%in 2019.China’s saving rate peaked at 51.5%in 2010,and has been declining since then.At the same time,China’s Internet has experienced rapid development,with the penetration rate of the Internet gradually increasing from 4.6%in 2002 to 10.5%in 2006.After 2006,it has increased exponentially,reaching 59.6%in 2018.The above analysis shows that research on the relationship between digital finance and the decline of household saving rate needs to be expanded.This paper analyzes whether,how,and to what extent digital finance affects the saving rate of residents from the perspective of theoretical logic and empirical evidence.This paper proposes a double-entry mental accounting theory to explain how digital finance impacts the consumer and saving behaviors of residents.People have different credit constraints and utility gains when using mobile payment and Internet lending for consumption and saving compared to using conventional financial accounts.We can divide consumer accounts into two parts:conventional financial accounts and digital financial accounts.Conventional financial accounts are mainly used for consumers’offline paper currency payments,and the lending involved belongs to ordinary loans;digital financial accounts include consumers’online purchases and mobile payments,and the lending involved is manifested as online loans.In terms of digital financial accounts,people have less sense of loss and more sense of gain when they consume through mobile payment.At the same time,people feel less embarrassed and therefore are more likely to borrow money,which leads to more consumption and more loan consumption.Together,these two mechanisms lead to a decline in the saving rate.Additionally,digital finance has different effects on the saving rate of heterogeneous households.Cash-sensitive households are more affected by digital finance,and their saving rate drops more.In terms of empirical research,this paper combines China’s Digital Financial Inclusion Index and China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)to construct panel data for empirical analysis.The regression results show that there is a significantly negative relationship between digital finance and the saving rate of residents.For every 1 standard deviation increase in the digital financial inclusion index,the household saving rate will decrease by 0.498%.At the same time,the sub-index regression shows that the depth of use of digital finance,the degree of digitization,and the credit index have a significantly negative impact on the saving rate of residents.The mediating effect model is used to verify the transmission mechanism,which confirms the theoretical judgment that mobile payment and online lending reduce residents’saving rate by stimulating residents’consumption and residents’borrowing for consumption.Additionally,digital finance has a greater negative impact on the saving levels of young people,people with low education levels,and rural groups.This paper expands the research perspective of the factors affecting the household savings rate,and provides a way for digital finance to affect residents’savings rate at the psychological and behavioral levels.This paper proposes the following policy recommendations.Firstly,the government should pay attention to the impact of digital finance on residents’consumption and saving behavior.Secondly,the government needs to be alert to the hidden risks brought about by the decline in the saving rate,and to respond to the foreseeable decline in the saving rate in the future.Thirdly,we should focus on the high consumption and high debt of low-income groups such as young people,people with low education level,and rural residents.These groups and Internet finance operators need to be guided and legally regulated.