流动人口子女随迁还是留守:流入地财政压力的视角

Moving Together or Leaving Behind:The Impact of Fiscal Pressure of Destination Cities on the Children of Migrants

本文采用2012-2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,以2016年调整中央和地方增值税收入划分改革为准自然实验,考察流入地财政压力对流动人口子女随迁行为的影响。研究发现,流入地财政压力受增值税收入划分改革冲击越大的城市,改革后流动人口子女随迁的比例越低。机制检验发现,财政压力通过减少公共服务供给、增加住房成本进而抑制了流动人口子女的随迁。异质性分析表明,财政压力对女孩的随迁行为产生的影响更大,并且财政压力对子女随迁的抑制效应主要存在于低收入家庭、就业身份为受雇者的家庭以及经济发展水平较高的城市样本中。本文的研究结论对于进一步优化公共服务、统筹财政资源具有重要的启示意义。

This paper utilizes the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2012-2018,taking the Value-Added Tax(VAT)revenue sharing reform between central and local governments as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the impact of fiscal pressure in destination governments on the migratory behavior of children of migrant populations.The study finds that in cities where the fiscal pressure was more heavily impacted by the VAT revenue-sharing ratio reform,there was a significant decrease in the proportion of migrant children who migrated after the reform.Mechanism tests reveal that fiscal pressure inhibits the migration behavior of migrant children by reducing the supply of public services and increasing housing costs.Heterogeneity analysis shows that fiscal pressure has a greater impact on the migratory behavior of girls,and the inhibitory effect of fiscal pressure on children's migration is mainly found in families with low income,families with employment status as employees,and in cities with higher levels of economic development.The conclusions of the study have important implications for further optimizing public services and coordinating fiscal resources.