电商进村政策实施的就业效应与机制分析

The Employment Effects and Mechanisms of The Implementation of Rural E-commerce Development Policy in China

本文利用中国家庭追踪调查六期微观面板数据,以“电子商务进农村综合示范”政策的实施刻画政府支持的电商发展,采用交错双重差分法考察了该政策实施对农村居民非农就业的影响。研究发现:该政策的实施显著促进了非农就业,特别是“离土不离乡”型和包容性非农就业。具体而言,该政策实施后,样本农村居民非农就业概率提高了14.4%,本地非农就业概率提高了15.1%,外地非农就业概率降低了4.3%;该政策实施的非农就业效应在女性与中老年人群体,在低资本禀赋家庭,以及在原贫困县、革命老区、中西部地区、电商潜力地区更强。从产业演化和组织激励视角进行的机制分析表明:该政策的实施可通过促进乡村企业发展与县域产业结构升级降低农村居民的非农就业成本,以及通过形成同群经济激励与个体声誉激励增强农村居民的非农就业偏好。综合来看,借力电商发展,多渠道引导和保障农村居民非农就业,促进形成本地农村劳动力在农业部门和非农部门的均衡配置,有益于实现乡村振兴与共同富裕。

Based on the micro panel dataset of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010-2020,this paper depicts the development of government-supported e-commerce with the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Policy,and employs a staggered difference-in-differences strategy to examine the effects of the policy on rural residents off-farm employment.Empirical results show that(1)the implementation of the policy has significantly enhanced off-farm employment,particularly the off-farm employment without leaving hometown and inclusive off-farm employment.Specifically,after the implementation of the policy,the probability of off-farm employment in the sample increased by 14.4%,that of local off-farm employment increased by 15.1%,and that of working as a migrant worker decreased by 4.3%.(2)The off-farm employment effect of the implementation of the policy is prominent among the female,middle-aged,and elderly groups,households with disadvantaged capital endowments,and those in former poor-stricken counties,the traditional revolutionary base,middle-west areas,and areas with e-commerce potential.(3)Furthermore,the mechanism analysis from the perspective of industrial evolution and organizational incentives shows that the implementation of the policy,on one side,decreases the non-agricultural employment costs of rural residents by promoting the establishment of rural enterprises and upgrading the county-level industrial structure.On the other side,it increases the non-agricultural employment preference of rural residents by amplifying peer income incentives and individual reputation incentives.To conclude,with the help of the development of e-commerce,multiple-channel guidance and protection of non-agricultural employment of rural residents,and the formation of a balanced allocation of local rural labor forces between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors are conducive to the revitalization of rural industries and common prosperity.