中国农业生态全要素生产率增长:经验事实、区域差异与动态演进

China’s Agricultural Ecological Total Factor Productivity Growth in:Empirical Facts,Regional Differences,and Dynamic Evolution

基于2005-2021年30个省份的面板数据,本文科学估算中国农业生态价值,进而将其作为一种合意产出纳入全要素生产率测算体系,并构建EBM-GML模型测算和分解中国农业生态全要素生产率,然后采用Dagum基尼系数、收敛模型、核密度估计、马尔可夫链等方法,考察中国农业生态全要素生产率增长的时空演进特征。研究结果表明:第一,2005-2021年,中国农业生态价值呈波动式上升趋势,且形成“西高、中次、东低”的空间分布格局。第二,中国农业生态全要素生产率年均增长3.08%,表现出阶段性的波动式增长和明显的空间非均衡性特征,中国农业生态全要素生产率增长主要由农业生态技术进步驱动。第三,农业生态全要素生产率增长的总体差异明显扩大,这种差异主要来源于区域间差异。此外,全国和三大区域农业生态全要素生产率不存在σ收敛和绝对β收敛,但存在条件β收敛。第四,农业生态全要素生产率增长的地区差距明显扩大,分布形态呈现由“单极化”向“两极化”和“多极化”演进的趋势,且分布动态的内部流动性较弱。

Based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2021,this paper firstly estimates the agricultural ecological value scientifically,then incorporates it as a desirable output into the total factor productivity measurement system,and constructs the EBM-GML model to measure and decompose the growth of agricultural ecological total factor productivity in China.It also analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural ecological total factor productivity growth by using Dagum’s Gini coefficient,convergence model,kernel density estimation and Markov chain.The findings are as follows.Firstly,from 2005 to 2021,China’s agricultural ecological value showed a fluctuating upward trend and the spatial distribution pattern was“the highest in the west,lower in the middle,and the lowest in the east”.Secondly,the average annual growth rate of China’s agricultural ecological total factor productivity was 3.08%,showing periodic fluctuating growth and obvious spatial non-equilibrium characteristics.Its growth was mainly driven by ecological technology progress.Thirdly,the overall difference in the growth of agricultural ecological total factor productivity showed a significant expansion trend,mainly due to inter-regional differences.In addition,there was no σ convergence and unconditional β convergence for both the whole country and the three major agricultural regions,but there is conditional β convergence.Lastly,the regional gap in the growth of agricultural ecological total factor productivity had widened significantly,and the distribution pattern had a tendency to evolve from“single polarization”to“polarization”and“multi-polarization”,and the internal mobility of distribution dynamics was weak.