人工智能发展、干中学效应与技能溢价——基于内生技术进步模型的分析

AI,Learning-By-Doing and Skill Premium:A Study Based on a Model of Endogenous Technological Change

人工智能技术正引领着新一轮科技革命和产业变革。在拥抱这些发展成果的同时,社会各界一直担忧人工智能发展会提升技能溢价,即扩大低技能劳动力与高技能劳动力之间的收入差距,并进一步扩大整个社会的收入差距。本文建立了一个内生技术进步模型,通过引入劳动力的技能异质性,划分出新任务的创造和旧任务的自动化改造两种技术进步形式,并强调低技能劳动力的干中学效应,全面考察人工智能发展对技能溢价的影响。研究发现:考虑低技能劳动力的干中学效应后,新任务的创造在提升对高技能劳动力需求的同时会更大幅度地提升对低技能劳动力的需求,长期看会降低技能溢价;旧任务的自动化则会降低对低技能劳动力的需求,提升技能溢价。在此基础上,本文使用数值模拟方法,进一步量化分析了低技能劳动力的学习能力、新任务的创造效率以及高技能劳动力的供给等因素对技能溢价的影响。本文有助于理解人工智能发展对技能溢价的影响机制,为制定相关政策提供启示。

The rapid development of artificial intelligence(AI)technology is leading a new wave of industrial revolution,and also significantly affecting the skill premiums of the labor force,which has attracted much attention.On one hand,the development of AI promotes the transformation and upgrading of production methods and gives rise to new industries,increasing the demand for skilled labor,which may raise the skill premium.On the other hand,with the popularization of AI and the learning in people’s labor process,jobs that originally required highly specialized skills may be mastered by a wider range of people,which reduces the scarcity of skills,provides more development opportunities for low-skilled labor,and reduces the skill premium.This paper establishes a model of endogenous technological change,introduces labor skill heterogeneity,and divides technological change into two forms:the creation of new tasks and the automation of old tasks.It highlights the learning-by-doing effect of lowskilled labor to comprehensively examine the impact of AI development on the skill premium.Theoretical analysis and numerical simulation of this paper leads to the following insights.①In the short term,AI has the characteristic of increasing skill premiums.②In the long term,the learning-bydoing effect of low-skilled labor is a key factor in maintaining the stability of skill premiums.③In the long term,the R&D efficiency of AI products can be divided into two types,which have opposite effects on skill premiums.When the R&D efficiency of job-replacing technology products increases,the demand for low-skilled labor decreases,leading to a significant increase in skill premiums;conversely,when the R&D efficiency of job-creating technology products increases,the effect is the opposite.④Whether in the short or long term,increasing the proportion of high-skilled labor can effectively reduce skill premiums.This paper has several contributions.Firstly,the learning-by-doing effect of labor is introduced into the framework of the endogenous technological change model of AI,which provides a new perspective for explaining the economic impacts of technological progress in AI.Secondly,considering the learning-bydoing process,this paper analyzes the various impact paths of AI technology on the skill premium at different stages of development,which helps to understand the impact mechanism of AI development on the skill premium.Finally,a simulation analysis is conducted with Chinese data to quantitatively estimate the impact of the learning ability,the efficiency of the change of new jobs,and the supply of high-skilled labor on the skill premium,which provides policy insights to maintain the stability of the skill premium.