外部不确定性、数字化赋能与企业全球价值链嵌入——基于“一带一路”沿线国家企业的证据

External Uncertainty,Digital Empowerment and Enterprise GVC Embeddedness:Evidences from Enterprises in Countries along the “Belt and Road”

外部不确定性加剧全球价值链收缩,成为“一带一路”区域价值链构建面临的重要问题;深化数字化赋能将帮助企业应对不确定性冲击,稳固企业全球价值链嵌入。采用2008—201 9年世界银行企业调查数据与全球不确定性指数,研究外部不确定性对“一带一路”沿线国家企业全球价值链嵌入的影响以及数字化赋能的调节作用。研究发现,外部不确定性显著抑制“一带一路”沿线国家企业全球价值链嵌入决策与嵌入水平;外部不确定性主要通过加大供应链风险、降低生产效率以及阻碍技术创新来抑制企业全球价值链嵌入;异质性分析显示,外部不确定性对小规模企业、高契约密集型行业以及较低制度环境水平国家的全球价值链嵌入的影响更大。企业与国家层面的数字化赋能将有效缓解外部不确定性对“一带一路”沿线国家企业全球价值链嵌入的抑制作用。基于以上研究结论,政府亟须稳定企业外部风险预期,完善供应链风险应对机制,提升企业参与全球价值链分工能力,以数字化赋能促进企业全球价值链韧性提升,加快推动数字基础设施建设与数字贸易制度创新。

The external uncertainty intensifies the contraction of the global value chain,which has become an important issue for the construction of the regional value chain of the“Belt and Road”.Deepening the digital empowerment will help enterprises cope with the impact of uncertainty shock and stabilize their integration into the global value chain.Using the World Bank enterprise survey data and global uncertainty index from 2008 to 2019,this paper studies the impact of external uncertainty on the global value chain embeddedness of enterprises in countries along the“Belt and Road”and the moderating effect of digital empowerment.The findings show that the external uncertainty significantly inhibits the embedding decision and embedding level of enterprises in the global value chain of countries along the“Belt and Road”,and that the external uncertainty mainly suppresses the global value chain embedding of enterprises by increasing supply chain risks,reducing production efficiency,and hindering technological innovation.The heterogeneity analysis shows that external uncertainty has a greater impact on the embedding of global value chains in small-scale enterprises,higher contract-intensive industries,and countries with lower levels of institutional environment.Digital empowerment at the enterprise and national levels will effectively alleviate the inhibition of external uncertainty on the embedding of enterprises in the global value chain of countries along the“Belt and Road”.Based on the above research conclusions,the government urgently needs to stabilize the external risk expectations of enterprises,improve the supply chain risk response mechanism,enhance the ability of enterprises to participate in the global value chain division of labor,promote the resilience of enterprises in the global value chain through digital empowerment,and accelerate the construction of digital infrastructure and innovation of digital trade systems.