百年变局背景下国际直接投资趋势与政策展望

Prospects for Global FDl and Investment Policies in a Transforming World

全球一体化生产网络正在广泛和深刻地分化重组。本文通过梳理全球国际直接投资的历史演变和现实状态,对未来国际直接投资的格局做出研判。本文基于全球治理变革、新技术革命、产业政策主导以及可持续发展浪潮四大关键推动因素,推断未来国际投资生产格局将围绕着东亚、北美和西欧三大区域轴心,朝着十大方向转变。其中包括产业链的区域化、产业链缩短、投资的轻资产化、服务附加值份额增长、市场导向型外国直接投资(FDI)上升、中间品贸易下行、生产定制化转变、基础设施和公共服务领域FDI增长以及绿色经济、蓝色经济和循环经济投资成为投资促进的重点。最后,结合预测结论,本文对中国吸收外资、对外投资工作重点、促进投融资动态平衡、产业链重塑、可持续发展以及服务业提升六个方面提出了若干建议。

The global integrated production networks are undergoing extensive and profound restructuring.This article forecasts the future direction of international direct investment development through examining the historical evolution and status quo of the global investment flow.Based on the analysis of four pivotal driving forces--global governance reform,new technological revolution,industrial policy dominance,and sustainable development imperatives,the article anticipates the forthcoming transformation of international investment and production systems,which are centered on three regional hubs:East Asia,North America,and West Europe.The article predicts ten possible directions of change,including regionalization of global industrial chains,shortening of global industrial chains,asset-light investment,growing share of services added value,rising market-oriented FDI,declining intermediate goods trade,production customization,FDI growth in infrastructure and public services,and a focus on green,blue,and circular economy investments.The article concludes by highlighting several policy implications,emphasizing a renewed focus on facilitating both inward and outward investment,promoting a dynamic balance of investment and financing,reshaping the international production network,pursuing sustainable investment,and enhancing the service industries.