基于手机信令数据的上海五个新城独立性动态特征与趋势研究

Measuring the Independence Characteristics and Trends of the Five New Towns in Shanghai Based on Cell Phone Signaling Data

“独立的综合性节点城市”是上海“十四五”对五个新城发展的战略性定位和重要要求之一。基于2014年、2020年的两期手机信令数据,从通勤活动和生活活动两个方面测度了上海五个新城的“独立性”及其发展趋势。研究发现,虽然五个新城职住规模较为均衡,但实际“独立性”存在弱化趋势,部分新城向中心城通勤和生活出行的比例高达20%以上,“卧城”特征十分明显;五个新城对周边地区就业和活动的吸引力正在不断增强,但对中心城的“反磁力作用”始终较弱。轨道交通可能大大强化了新城的“卧城”作用,但并没有促进新城的“反磁力”作用。上海五个新城仍处在由依赖中心城区的半独立卫星城向自我平衡的独立新城转变的阶段,其“独立性”仍有较大优化空间。

Becoming independent and comprehensive nodes is one of the important requirements of Shanghai's 14th Five-Year Plan for the development of the five new towns.Based on the cell phone signaling data in 2014 and 2020,this paper measures the independence characteristics and trends of the five new towns in Shanghai in terms of commuting and non-commuting activities.The results show that although the scale of job and housing are balanced,the actual job-housing feature tends to deteriorate.The proportion of commuting and living trips from certain new towns to the central city reaches more than 20%.The five new towns are becoming more attractive to the surrounding areas for employment and activities,but remain less attractive to the central city.In addition,rail transit may have enhanced the residency of the new towns,but it has not enhanced the attractiveness of the new towns to the central city.It is found that the five new towns are still in the stage of transformation from semi-independent towns to self-balancing independent new towns.The independence of the five new towns still has much room for optimization.