中国人口老龄化与货币政策实施效果研究——基于动态随机一般均衡模型视角

Population Aging and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policies in China

中国式现代化是人口规模巨大的现代化,党的二十大对实施积极应对人口老龄化的国家战略提出了新的更高要求。本文通过构建动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,引入人口老龄化冲击、货币政策冲击,从就业、产出等视角研究人口老龄化的影响,探讨人口老龄化对货币政策实施效果的影响。研究发现:人口老龄化的加深,不仅会使经济出现波动,带来产出、就业、消费、投资下降等问题,而且还会削弱货币政策的有效性。本文的研究结论对于应对人口老龄化及完善货币政策调控具有重要的政策含义,建议继续保持货币政策的连续性和稳健性,加强货币政策与其他政策的协同配合,稳步推进劳动就业政策调整。

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China called for intensified efforts to promote a timely,scientific and comprehensive response to population aging as part of a national strategy.This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic equilibrium(DSGE)model and examines shocks from population aging and monetary policy.It studies the impact of population aging from the perspectives of employment and output,as it explores how population aging affects monetary policy implementation.The study found that increased population aging caused fluctuations in the economy,leading to problems such as declines in output,employment,consumption and investment.Greater population aging weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy,according to this study.This paper puts forward policy recommendations including maintaining continuity and stability in monetary policy,deepening the synergy between monetary and other government policies,strengthening monetary policy support for eldercare financing,adjusting labor and employment policies,and accelerating the overhaul of the industrial structure.