农村老年人养老服务需求及其影响因素——基于安德森模型的实证研究

The Demand of Elderly Care Service in Rural Areas and Its Influencing Factors:Empirical Research Based on the Anderson Model

基于安德森模型构建理论分析框架,利用CLHLS 2018年数据,采用二项logit回归模型,实证分析农村老年人养老服务需求意愿及其影响因素。研究发现:农村老年人养老服务需求意愿较高,供需失衡明显;其养老服务需求意愿高低次序为,医疗保健类需求、精神慰藉类需求、权益保障类需求和日常照料类需求。安德森模型中的情景、倾向、使能、需要四类特征变量对农村老年人养老服务需求意愿均有不同程度的显著影响。其中:平原地区、老龄化程度较高地区、未婚或丧偶、独居、上过学、家庭规模大、社区(村庄)养老服务供给较多、健康状况较差的农村老年人养老服务需求意愿较高;地区人均GDP较高、养老机构数较多、邻里关系和谐、生活来源充裕以及享有养老保险的农村老年人养老服务需求意愿较低;年龄和子女数量对农村老年人不同养老服务项目的需求意愿有差异性影响。在农村养老服务体系构建过程中,应重视需求的次序性,加大投入,突出重点,同时应尤为关注农村弱势老年群体,保障其养老服务获取权利。

Using data from CLHLS(2018)and the binomial logistic regression model,this paper built a theoretical framework from the Anderson model,and analyzed the demand of elderly care service in rural areas and its influencing factors.It is found that the rural elderly have a high demand for eldercare service,and the imbalance between supply and demand is obvious.The order of preference for elderly care service demands,from highest to lowest is medical care,spiritual consolation,rights and interest protection and daily care.The four characteristic variables in Anderson's model,namely scenario,tendency,enablement and need,all have a significant influence on the care demand of rural older adults.Among them,the rural elderly in plain areas,in regions with a high degree of population ageing,who are unmarried,widowed or living alone,who have gone to school or are living in an extended family,or who live in poor health or in communities or villages with an adequate care service provision have a higher demand for eldercare services.The rural elderly who live in regions with a high level of per capita GDP,plenty of care institutions,or harmonious neighborhood relations,or who have abundant sources of living and pension insurance,have lower demand for pension service.Age and the number of children have different effects on the demand of rural elderly people for different care services.When building the rural care service system,we should focus on the demand order,increase investment,highlight key points,and pay special attention to the rural vulnerable older people to ensure their rights to obtain eldercare service.