船舶修造企业火灾事故特征挖掘与致因分析

Feature mining and causative analysis of fire accidents in ship repair and building enterprises

为探究船舶修造企业(SRBE)火灾事故的特征和致因,运用数理统计方法研究118起火灾事故,从事故的时空属性、火灾三要素和伤害严重程度进行事故特征挖掘;并基于改进的人因分析与分类系统(HFACS-SRBE)事故致因模型,采用卡方检验、让步比(OR)、克莱姆V系数(Cramer's V)方法,分析致因因素之间的相关性及其强弱。结果表明:14:00—16:00最易发生火灾事故和人员伤亡;火灾事故主要发生地点在船舶区域,占比为33.90%;59.19%的点火源是动火作业;无人员伤害、轻伤和轻微伤、重伤和死亡数量比值为61:54:3。通过相关性及其强弱检验后确定15组相邻层级致因因素存在相关性,并得到26条完整事故致因链。其中,沟通与协调→运行计划不适当→不良心理状态→决策差错是导致船舶修造火灾事故发生关联性强度最大的事故致因链。

To investigate the features and causation factors of fire accidents in SRBE,118 fire accidents were studied using method of mathematical statistics.Firstly,accident features were mined in terms of the temporal and spatial attributes of accidents,the three elements of fire and the severity of injuries.Then,based on the improved HFACS-SRBE accident causation model,methods such as Chi-square test,OR and Cramer's V were used to analyze the correlations and their strength between the causal factors.The results show that 14:00-16:00 is the most prone to fire accidents and casualties.The main location of fire accidents is in the ship area,accounting for 33.90%.59.19%of the ignition source comes from the ignition operation.Ratio of no injuries,slight and minor injuries,serious injuries and deaths is 61:54:3.Through the test of correlations and their strength,it is determined that 15 groups of adjacent level causal factors are correlated,and 26 complete accident causation chains are obtained.Covers communication and coordination→inappropriate operation plans→bad psychological state→decision-making errors is the accident causation chain with the greatest strength of correlation leading to the occurrence of fire accidents in ship repair and building enterprises.