面向飞行全过程的民航事故致因关联网络分析

Causes and correlation network analysis of civil aviation accidents for whole flight phases

为提升我国民航安全水平,面向“滑行—起飞—爬升—巡航—下降—进近与着陆”的飞行全过程,提出一种基于关联规则和社会网络分析(SNA)的致因分析方法。首先,搜集中国民航安全信息系统2010—2022年共1051起民航事故案例,结合《控制航行服务程序—培训》,建立基于“人—机—环—管”的民航事故致因体系;其次,采用EasyData数据服务平台进行标注,构建面向飞行全过程的民航事故致因数据集,基于FP-Growth算法挖掘以飞行阶段为规则后项的关联规则;最后,考虑关联规则的共现频率,构建民航事故致因关联网络,开展飞行阶段与事故致因的中心性分析。结果表明:进近与着陆阶段是飞行过程中风险最大的阶段,运行失效、跑道安全事故和客舱安全事故是主要事故类型,在挖掘出的10个民航事故关键致因因素中,人为因素4个、设施设备因素2个、环境因素3个、管理因素1个。

In order to improve the safety level of China Civil Aviation,a cause analysis method,which focused on the whole process of'taxiing-takeoff-climbing-cruising-falling-approaching and landing',was proposed based on association rules and SNA.Firstly,a total of 1051 civil aviation accident cases from 2010 to 2022 were collected from Aviation Safety Information System.Then,a civil aviation accident causation index system based on'human-machine-environment-management'was established in combination with'control navigation service procedure-training'.Secondly,the EasyData data service platform was used for annotation,followed by constructing the data-set of the cause of civil aviation accidents facing the whole process of flight.Furthermore,the FP-Growth algorithm was employed to mine the association rules with the flight phase as the subsequent term of rules.Finally,this study emphasized the co-occurrence frequency of association rules,and developed the correlation network of civil aviation accident causes by applying the centrality analysis of flight phase and accident causes.The results show that the most dangerous phases of flight are the approach and landing.Operation failures,runway safe accidents and cabin safe accidents are the main types.Among the 10 identified causes of civil aviation accidents,there are 4 human factors,2 facilities and equipment factors,3 environmental factors and 1 management factor.