国内国际双循环分解框架与中国经济对外依存度研究

The Decomposition of Dual Circulation and External Dependence of Economy

文章基于多区域投入产出模型,提出国内国际双循环分解框架,定义不同类型(简单/复杂、前向/后向)经济对外依存度指标,并分析在不同经济周期经济对外依存度与经济增长率的相关关系。研究发现,中国国内循环规模要明显高于国内国际双循环规模,简单国内国际双循环规模最低。中国经济对外依存度在2006年达到顶点,而且后向经济对外依存度更早出现拐点。在全球经济高速增长期,经济对外依存度与经济增长呈现正相关关系,而在全球经济增长趋缓阶段则刚好相反。外需的下降对于经济对外依存度较高的部门冲击更大,扩大内需是应对全球经济低迷的重要手段。在当前全球经济处于下行周期背景下,建议积极发展以国内大循环为主、国内国际双循环相互促进的发展战略。

This study proposes a new decomposition framework of China’s economic dual circulation,divides external dependence of economy into different types(i.e.,simple/complex;forward/backward),and analyzes the relationship between the external dependence of economy and the growth of economy.We find that the scale of internal circulation is greater than that of dual circulation,and simple dual circulation corresponds to the smallest volume.After reaching the peak in 2006,the external dependence of economy has decreased gradually,and the peak of backward external dependence appeared earlier.During the rapid economic growth period,the external dependence of economy is positively related to the growth of economy,and the relationship during the slow economic growth period is just the reverse.The decrease in foreign demand has a significant impact on the sectors with a greater degree of forward external dependence,so an effective solution is to stimulate internal demand.The findings of this study are supportive for China to anchor its economic growth at internal circulation and gain extra impetus from dual circulation.