收益预测与经营实现数不一致探析——大概率性、原因分析、责任界定和改进建议

Analysis of Inconsistency between Earnings Forecast and Operating Performance——High probability、Analysis of Causes、Definition of Responsibility and Improvement suggestions

从评估基准日看未来,收益法资产评估中的收益预测是随机的,而经营实现数是从事实当下看历史,所有经营实现数都是客观且单一的,企业未来经营实现数与收益预测数进行比较是用实际数与随机数之一进行比较,不一致甚至存在较大差异是大概率事件。导致收益预测与经营实现数不一致的原因除了资产评估师责任外,还包括但不限于预测理论、评估技术和企业经营决策执行等。只有通过对两个数据不一致的产生原因进行全面系统分析,对其进行比较并界定相关责任才有现实意义。收益预测及评估结论单一点估计的表述形式,客观上容易引导相关方对预测数与经营实现数进行比较,进而对资产评估师和资产评估机构带来非正面影响。本文建议,在收益法资产评估中,收益预测和资产评估结论采用多样化点估计和区间估计相结合的表述形式,以使收益预测和评估结论与未来经营实现数更加契合,使资产评估结论更具合理性和解释力。

Based on the evaluation date,the prediction in the income approach for asset appraisal is stochastic,while the operating performance is based on historical facts.All operating performance data are objective and single,so it is more likely to have inconsistency and even significant differences between the future operating performance and the prediction comparing the actual numbers with random numbers.The reasons for this inconsistency include the responsibilities of asset appraisers,as well as prediction theory,evaluation technology,and enterprise business decision-making implementation.Only through a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the reasons for the inconsistency between the two data sets can it be meaningful to compare them and define relevant responsibilities.The single-point estimation expression form of income prediction and evaluation conclusions can objectively guide relevant parties to compare the prediction and operating performance data,which has a non-positive impact on asset appraisers and asset appraisal agencies.This article suggests that in the income approach asset appraisal,the income prediction and asset appraisal conclusions should use a combination of diversified point estimation and interval estimation to make the income prediction and evaluation conclusions more consistent with future operating performance,making the asset appraisal conclusion more reasonable and explanatory.