新发展理念下对外贸易高质量发展的时空演变

Spatio-temporal Evolution of High-quality Development of Foreign Trade Based on New Development Concept

本文基于新发展理念构建指标体系并对2005—2021年中国30个省份对外贸易高质量发展进行测度,结合核密度估计等方法分析其时空演进和分布格局,借助Dagum系数法和耦合模型识别区域发展差异与系统整体性,并运用障碍因子法对部分地区进行制约诊断。研究表明:中国对外贸易高质量发展显示良好上升趋势,呈现东高西低、中部上升、东北停滞的分布特征;空间集聚性明显,未表现出极化倾向;组间差异是外贸高质量发展的主要差异来源,尤其是东西差异;各区域新发展理念的系统整体性有所提升,除西部地区外耦合协调性均呈收敛态势;影响东北和西部省份发展的制约因素集中在绿色生态、科技创新和效益共享三个维度。

Based on the new development concept,this paper constructed a comprehensive index system,measured the high-quality development of foreign trade of 30 provinces from 2005 to 2021,employed kernel density estimation and other methods to analyze its spatio-temporal evolution and distribution pattern.This paper also decomposed regional development differences through Dagum Gini subgroup method,analysed system integrity of high-quality development of foreign trade through coupling coordination model and diagnosed obstacles of some backward provinces through obstacle factor method.The results show that the high-quality development of foreign trade in China presents upward trend and shows a spatial distribution of “high in the east,low in the west,rising in the middle and stagnant in the northeast”.The high-quality development of foreign trade has obvious spatial agglomeration but has no spatial polarization trend.The major source of differences is intergroup difference,especially the difference between the east and the west.The systematization of new development concepts has been improved.There is a converging trend of the coupling and coordination of all areas except the west area.The main constraints on the high-quality development of foreign trade in the northeast and the west area are green ecology,technological innovation and trade benefits sharing.