全球气候变化下农田杂草节节麦和豚草的潜在威胁及其驱动因子

The potential threat and driving factors of cropland weeds Aegilops tauschii and Ambrosia artemisiifolia under global climate change

为探究杂草节节麦和豚草在未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区和对耕地的潜在威胁,本研究使用物种分布模型的集成平台Biomod2分析了节节麦和豚草的全球潜在分布区及驱动其分布的气候因子,并与全球耕地分布相结合,评价受潜在威胁的耕地区域。结果表明:影响节节麦分布的主要因子为最冷月份最低温度和最暖季度降水量,影响豚草分布的主要因子为最干月份降水量和年平均气温;节节麦的适宜生境区在RCP2.6与RCP8.5情景下均减少,豚草的适宜生境区在RCP8.5情景下增加;节节麦与耕地重叠区域在RCP2.6与RCP8.5情景下均减少,而豚草的重叠区域在RCP8.5情景下增加。研究表明,随着未来气温升高,节节麦的分布区域会逐渐减少,对耕地的潜在威胁也随之减小;豚草则在未来气温显著升高下分布区域大幅增加,对耕地的潜在威胁也显著增大。

To explore the potential distribution areas of weeds Aegilops tauschii and Ambrosia artemisiifolia and their potential threats to croplands under future climate change scenarios,we analyzed the global potential distribution areas of Aegilops tauschii and Ambrosia artemisiifolia and the climate factors driving their distribution using Biomod2,an integrated platform of species distribution model.We further evaluated the potential threatened cropland areas in combination with the global distribution of croplands.The results showed that the main factors affecting the distribution of Aegilops tauschii were the minimum temperature of the coldest month and the precipitation of the warmest quarter.The main factors affecting the distribution of Ambrosia artemisiifolia were the precipitation of the driest month and annual mean temperature.The suitable habitat area of Aegilops tauschii decreased under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5,and that of Ambrosia artemisiifolia increased under scenario RCP8.5.The overlap area between Aegilops tauschii distribution and cropland decreased under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5,while that between Ambrosia artemisiifolia distribution and cropland increased under scenario RCP8.5.Our results suggested that the distribution area of Aegilops tauschii and the potential threat to cropland will gradually decrease with increasing temperature under climate change.In contrast,the distribution area of Ambrosia artemisiifolia and the potential threat to cropland will increase significantly under the dramatic increase in temperature in the future.