新基建与区域经济协调发展的时空耦合及影响因素

Spatiotemporal coupling and influencing factors of new infrastructure and coordinated economic development

基于2013—2020年中国31省(市、区)的面板数据,在测算出各省级行政单元新基建发展水平和区域经济协调发展程度的基础上,运用耦合协调度模型测算出二者的耦合协调度并分析其时空演化格局及影响因素。结果发现:①中国新基建发展水平、区域经济协调发展程度及二者的耦合协调度均逐年升高,其增长幅度皆呈增加趋势;②新基建与区域经济协调发展的耦合协调度存在明显的空间异质性,东部地区高于中部和东北地区,西部地区最低;③新基建发展水平在省域之间具有负向空间溢出效应,而区域协调发展程度及二者的耦合协调度在省域之间具有正向空间溢出效应;④影响新基建与区域经济协调发展时空耦合的主要因素是产业结构和城市化进程。本文对中国新基建发展水平、区域经济协调发展程度及二者耦合协调度的演化特征及影响因素进行了研判,期望为中国新基建和区域经济协调发展的良性互动提供决策参考。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(cities and districts)in China from 2013 to 2020,this paper measures the level of new infrastructure development and the degree of coordinated regional economic devel-opment in each province and then uses the coupling coordination model to measure the coupling coordination degree of the two and analyzes their spatial and temporal evolution patterns and influencing factors.The res-ults show that:1)The level of development in China’s new infrastructure and regional economic coordination degree has been improving each year,with increasing coupling and coordination between the two.Despite starting from a lower level,the growth rate of new infrastructure has been significant since 2018,reaching 29.96%in 2020.Similarly,there has been a noticeable upward trend in the degree of regional economic co-ordination and the coupling between new infrastructure and regional economic coordination degree.2)The coupling and coordination between new infrastructure and regional economic coordination degree exhibit spa-tial heterogeneity,with the eastern region surpassing the central and northeastern regions,while the western re-gion lags behind.This discrepancy can be attributed to the relatively higher levels of new infrastructure devel-opment and regional economic coordination degree in the eastern provinces,as well as the smaller internal dif-ferences within the central and northeastern provinces.On the other hand,the western provinces exhibit great-er disparities.3)The level of new infrastructure development demonstrates negative spatial spillover effects among provincial regions,whereas the degree of regional economic coordination and the coupling between new infrastructure and regional economic coordination degree exhibit positive spatial spillover effects among provincial regions.4)The factors that primarily influence the coupling and coordination between new infra-structure and regional economic coordination degree are related to industrial structure and urbanization pro-cesses.Conversely,factors such as government management and population density have less discernible ef-fects on this coupling and coordination.The article investigates the evolutionary characteristics and influen-cing factors of the level of new infrastructure development,the degree of coordinated regional economic devel-opment,and the degree of coupling and coordination of the two in China,and expects to provide a reference for decision-making on the benign interaction between new infrastructure and coordinated regional economic de-velopment in China.