基于新发展理念的南京城市韧性综合及动态预测研究

Comprehensive urban resilience and dynamic prediction of Nanjing City based on the new development concept

本文基于新发展理念,从“经济−社会−生态−工程”4个维度构建城市韧性测度指标体系,运用熵值法及综合评价法对2005—2019年南京市分维度、分阶段的城市韧性进行量化评估;借助系统动力学构建南京城市韧性动态仿真模型,对2020—2035年南京城市韧性发展水平进行长时序预测及多情景模拟,以比较不同情景的发展潜力。结果表明:2005—2019年,南京市综合韧性与分维度韧性整体呈波动上升趋势,各维度韧性占比在2005—2010年间存在显著差异,自2010年起位序转换剧烈,各韧性占比差距开始缩小,2019年经济韧性占比超越工程韧性跃居第1;相较于2019年,2035年时南京市综合韧性水平在自然状态发展、人口高速增长、经济快速增长、生态优先发展及综合协调发展情景下将分别提高25.62%、27.59%、28.40%、27.19%和30.29%,可见,综合协调发展情景能最大限度提升南京市城市韧性水平,且最早达成强度韧性,其余发展情景则会对部分社会经济等典型指标产生不同程度的负向作用。因此,今后南京市应注重新发展理念,持续优化综合协调发展路径,平衡经济、社会、生态、工程子系统间的关系,打造韧性城市建设的新范式,助推城市高质量发展。

Based on the new development concept,this paper constructs a resilience measurement index system from 4 dimensions of“economy-society-ecology-engineering”and quantitatively evaluates the urban resilience of Nanjing from 2005 to 2019 by dimensions and stages using entropy value method.A dynamic simulation model of Nanjing’s urban resilience was constructed with the help of System Dynamics to predict the development level of Nanjing’s urban resilience from 2020 to 2035 in a long time series and to compare the development potential of different scenarios.The results show that the overall trend of Nanjing’s comprehensive resilience and sub-dimensional resilience fluctuates upward between 2005 and 2019.Compared with 2019,by 2035,Nanjing’s comprehensive resilience level will increase by 25.62%,27.59%,28.40%,27.19%and 30.29%under the scenarios of natural state development,high population growth,rapid economic growth,ecological priority development and comprehensive and coordinated development,respectively.It can be seen that the comprehensive coordinated development scenario can maximize the improvement of Nanjing’s urban resilience level,and achieve strong resilience earliest,while other development scenarios will have varying degrees of negative effects on certain socio-economic indicators.Therefore,Nanjing should focus on the continuous optimization of the integrated and coordinated development path.