基于系统动力学的城市生活垃圾减量化研究--以合肥市为例

Research on the Reduction of Municipal Solid Waste based on System Dynamics:Taking Hefei City as a Case

垃圾分类处理与资源化利用是一个系统工程,需要各方协同发力、精准施策、久久为功。运用系统动力学构建合肥市城市生活垃圾产生系统动力学模型,采用VENSIM软件对2022—2030年合肥市城市生活垃圾产生量进行模拟预测,结果显示,合肥市城市生活垃圾产生量呈长期增长趋势,到2030年将达244.88万吨。为实现城市生活垃圾减量化,将垃圾处理费收费标准、居民垃圾分类意愿、垃圾回收价格分别引入和同时引入调控方案进行仿真测试,结果显示,同时提高垃圾处理费收费标准、居民垃圾分类意愿和垃圾回收价格的综合调控方案能使生活垃圾产生量降至最低,是最有效的调控方案。基于研究结论,提出三个方面的对策建议:推进生活垃圾收费制度落地见效,细化垃圾分类投放奖惩措施;加强对再生资源回收市场收运主体的管理培训,调控再生资源回收价格;建立政府主导、多方参与机制,充分发挥各主体的作用。

Garbage classification and resource utilization is a systematic project that requires concerted efforts,precise policies,and long-term efforts.The system dynamics model of municipal solid waste(MSW)generation in Hefei was constructed using system dynamics,and the simulation and prediction of MSW generation in Hefei from 2022 to 2030 were carried out using VENSIM software.The results showed that the MSW generation in Hefei showed a long-term growth trend and would reach 2,448,800 tons by 2030.In order to realize the reduction of MSW,simulation tests were carried out by separately and simultaneously introducing waste disposal fee charges,residents’willingness to classify waste,and waste recycling prices into the regulation scheme,and the results showed that the integrated regulation scheme of simultaneously increasing waste disposal fee charges,residents’willingness to classify waste,and waste recycling prices could minimize the amount of domestic waste generated,and it was the most effective regulation scheme.Based on the conclusions of the study,three aspects of countermeasures are proposed:to promote the effective implementation of the domestic garbage charging system and refine the incentives and penalties for garbage classification and placement;to strengthen the management training on the main body of the collection and transportation of renewable resources in the recycling market and to regulate the price of renewable resource recycling;and to establish a government-led,multi-party participatory mechanism to give full play to the role of all the main parties.