家庭规模收缩对城市经济发展的影响--基于2010-2020年中国城市面板数据的研究

The Impact of Family Size Shrinkage on Urban Economic Development:A Study Based on China's Urban Panel Data from 2010 to 2020

家庭是社会的“细胞”,是人民群众基本生活单位和社会治理的基本单元。第七次全国人口普查结果显示,2020年中国平均家庭户规模首次跌破3,家庭规模小型化已成为当前我国重要的人口特征之一。以我国287个地级及以上城市为研究对象,利用面板固定效应模型、门槛效应模型分析了2010—2020年间家庭规模变动对城市经济发展的影响。全国样本的回归结果显示,家庭规模与以人均GDP表征的城市经济水平存在同向变动关系,但这一关系在不同区域、不同人口增长速度的城市间具有异质性;中介效应结果显示,家庭规模收缩通过抑制城市人口增长和加重城市养老负担两条路径阻碍城市经济发展;门槛效应结果显示,只有当家庭规模收缩到一定程度以后,其对经济发展的作用才逐渐由“促进”转为“抑制”,且随着家庭规模的进一步收缩,这种抑制作用还会进一步增大。

The family is the“cell”of society,the basic unit of living for the people and the basic unit of social governance.The results of the seventh national census show that in 2020,the average household size in China fell below 3 for the first time,and the miniaturization of household size has become one of the important demographic characteristics in China.This article takes 287 cities at prefecture level and above in China as the research object,and uses panel fixed effects model and threshold effects model to analyze the impact of changes in household size on urban economic development from 2010 to 2020.It is found that,firstly,the regression results of the national sample show a co-directional relationship between household size and urban economic level represented by per capita GDP,and this relationship exhibits heterogeneity among cities in different regions and at different population growth rates;The intermediary effect results show that the contraction of household size hinders urban economic development through two paths:inhibiting urban population growth and increasing the burden of urban elderly care;Finally,the threshold effect results show that only when the family size decreases to a certain extent,its role in economic development gradually shifts from“promoting”to“inhibiting”,and as the family size further decreases,this inhibitory effect on the economy will further increase.