基于STIRPAT模型的广东省碳排放峰值预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Carbon Emission Peaks in GuangdongProvince Based on STIRPAT Model

为切实减少碳排放,有效应对气候变化,我国计划于2030年前实现碳达峰,2060年前实现碳中和。广东省是我国经济第一大省,预测分析其未来碳排放对实现碳达峰碳中和具有重要意义。本文充分考虑诸多因素对碳排放的影响,构建STIRPAT模型,以1998—2019年数据作为样本进行岭回归,从而得到广东省碳排放预测方程,并通过情景分析法设定3种情景。结果表明,广东省在基准情景下无法于2030年前实现碳达峰目标,在低碳情景和强化低碳情景下则能顺利实现该目标。

In order to effectively reduce carbon emissions and respond to climate change,China plans to achieve carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.Guangdong province is the largest province in China’s economy,and predicting and analyzing its future carbon emissions is of great significance for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality.This paper fully considers the impact of various factors on carbon emissions,constructs a STIRPAT model,uses data from 1998 to 2019 as samples for ridge regression,and obtains the carbon emission prediction equation for Guangdong province,and sets three scenarios by using scenario analysis method.The results indicate that Guangdong province is unable to achieve the carbon peak target before 2030 under the baseline scenario,but can successfully achieve this goal under the low-carbon scenario and strengthened low-carbon scenario.