粮食主产区农业社会化服务发展水平的时空演变与影响因素

TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION AND FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL SOCIALIZED SERVICING LEVEL IN THE MAJOR CROP PRODUCTION AREAS

确保粮食等重要农产品的有效供给是乡村振兴的首要任务,而农业社会化服务作为对接传统小农户和现代农业的关键抓手,对保障粮食供给安全、推进乡村振兴具有重要意义。为了更好地促进农业社会化服务发展,在系统分析农业社会化服务发展逻辑的基础上,基于2008—2021年中国省级面板数据,运用熵值法、空间自相关和地理探测器等方法,测度粮食主产区农业社会化服务发展水平,探究其时空演变特征,并对其影响因素进行识别。结果表明:1)研究期间,粮食主产区农业社会化服务整体水平呈持续增长态势,形成了以技术信息服务和公共设施服务为核心支撑的发展结构;2)三大主产区农业社会化服务水平均有提高,发展水平按从高到低排列,依次为黄淮海主产区、长江流域主产区、东北主产区,但由于各维度发展水平参差不齐,各主产区分别形成了不同的结构特征;3)粮食主产区农业社会化服务水平在空间上呈现南高北低的分布特征,各省发展差距较大但协调发展态势良好,且空间正向集聚效应增强;4)多方因素均对农业社会化服务发展造成影响且程度大小不一,从位居前两位的影响因子看,经济社会发展层面为经济发展水平和农业发展规模,农村生产生活层面为土地规模经营水平和农村居民收入水平。据此,提出如下建议:兼顾总体建设和结构优化,在扬长补短中加快发展;充分发挥自身禀赋优势并把握外界机遇,针对性解决突出问题和促进发展;加快资源跨区共享联动,促进区域协调发展;推进经济社会有序运行和农村生产生活环境持续改善,为农业社会化服务发展创造更多有利条件。

Securing supply of key agricultural products like crops is the first task for reviving countryside,which can be satisfied through agricultural socialized servicing linking traditional farmer and modern agriculture.This paper,aiming at promoting agricultural socialized servicing,based on its developing logics,uses provincial panel data from 2008 to 2021,entropy,spatial auto-correlation and geographic detectors to measure the agricultural socialized servicing level in the major crop production areas,and to explore its temporal-spatial evolution and factors.During research period,agricultural socialized servicing level in the major crop production areas has been rising,supported by technical information servicing and public servicing.Agricultural socialized servicing in the three major crop production areas has been improved,ranking in a decreasing order,Huanghuaihai,Yangtze River basin,and northeast,displaying different structural features.Spatially,agricultural socialized servicing displays a south-high and north-low pattern,varying provincially but with positively rising concentration.Many factors impact it in a varying manner;top 2 factors include economy and agriculture scale from the view of economic and social development,and agricultural land scale operation and rural residents'income from the view of rural production and life.This paper present suggestions on overall construction and structural optimization,on making use of resources,on trans-regional sharing resources and regional coordination,on improving rural environment,and on creating more advantages for agricultural socialized servicing.