长江流域水资源利用效率及影响因素研究--基于Shephard水资源距离函数

WATER RESOURCES UTILIZATION EFFICIENCY AND FACTORS OF YANGTZE RIVER BASIN BASED ON SHEPHARD'S WATER RESOURCES DISTANCE FUNCTION

分析长江流域水资源利用效率、时空分布特征及影响因素,对于解决长江流域水资源问题和促进长江经济带发展至关重要。为科学评价长江流域水资源利用效率及空间分布差异,以2012—2020年长江流域11个省(市、自治区)为研究对象,构建Shephard水资源距离函数的随机前沿模型,对长江流域水资源利用效率及影响因素进行实证分析并探究长江流域水资源利用效率时空分异特征。研究表明:1)通过计算水足迹发现,长江流域各省水足迹消费总量趋于稳定,上游省份用水量较少,中下游省份水资源消费量较大,省际水足迹总量差异显著,农业生产是水足迹主要的来源,其次是工业用水;2)运用Shephard水资源距离函数的随机前沿模型计算长江流域水资源利用效率发现,省与省之间差异显著,空间上呈现“中游低,上下游高”的特征,并有逐年降低的趋势;2012—2020年上游省份水资源利用效率自西向东递减,中下游省份水资源利用效率在低水平上保持稳定并有降低趋势;3)选取的影响因素指标系数均通过了显著性检验,水资源禀赋的系数显著为负,表明人均水资源拥有量提高对长江流域水资源利用效率有正向促进作用;经济发展水平的系数显著为负,表明经济发展对水资源效率提升有推动作用;城镇化率的系数显著为负,表明城镇化水平越高,水资源的利用效率高,但影响程度较低;而第三产业占GDP的比重的系数显著为正,表明产业结构调整对水资源利用效率起抑制性作用。最后针对研究结果,提出以下对策建议:建立跨部门协调机制,加强水资源管理和监测;推动区域合作,加强信息共享;优化产业结构,促进可持续发展。

It makes sense to study water resources utilization efficiency,temporal-spatial distribution and factors in the Yangtze River Basin for its water resources and economic development.This paper uses its 2012 to 2020 data of 11 provinces(cities)to establish a random front model of Shephard's water resources distance function,which is employed to study water utilization efficiency,factors and temporal-spatial differentiation in the Yangtze River Basin.Water footprint shows a stabilizing water footprint consumption in the Yangtze River Basin,with water use in the upper-reaches less than in the middle-to down-reaches.Variance of gross provincial water footprint is mainly contributed by agricultural production,then by industrial production.Water utilization efficiency by random front model of Shephard's water resources distance function shows a pattern of“low in middle reaches and high in upper-and down-reaches”with a decreasing trend,falling eastward in the upper reaches,and also falling in the middle-to down-reaches at a low level.Selected factors have passed significance tests,with a positive relation between water resources and utilization efficiency,indicating increment of water resources per capita promotes water utilization efficiency,an outstandingly positive relation between economy and water utilization efficiency,which means economic growth greatly boosts water utilization efficiency.Urbanization rate has an obviously positive relation with water utilization;the higher urbanization,the higher water utilization efficiency.The proportion of the third industry's GDP has an outstandingly negative relation with water utilization efficiency,suggesting a constraint of industrial structural adjustment on water utilization efficiency.This paper presents suggestions on establishing a trans-department coordination to intensity water resources management and monitoring,pushing forward regional cooperation and information sharing,optimizing industrial structure and promoting sustainable development.